10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
EU-wide raspberry production opened the decade at 200.2 thousand tonnes, climbed to a cycle high of 230.6 thousand tonnes in 2020, then slid to 175.3 thousand tonnes by 2025. The trajectory is a story of Poland's retreat partially offset by gains concentrated in the Iberian Peninsula and France.
Poland remains by far the largest EU raspberry producer with a decade total of 1,008.9 thousand tonnes, but its output contracted sharply — falling from 129.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 79.1 thousand tonnes in 2025, a net decline of 50.0 thousand tonnes (a -5.29% CAGR, -38.7%). Poland's poorest year was 2019 at just 75.7 thousand tonnes, while its cycle peak of 129.1 thousand tonnes in the opening year was never reclaimed.
Spain emerged as the strongest growth story among the major producers, ascending from 22.0 thousand tonnes to 33.2 thousand tonnes (a 4.69% CAGR, +51.0%), with a decade total of 409.6 thousand tonnes. Spanish output peaked early at 60.0 thousand tonnes in 2019 before settling into a lower but still elevated range above 30 thousand tonnes in recent years. Portugal posted the highest CAGR in the dataset at 13.33%, climbing from 17.9 thousand tonnes in 2017 (the earliest complete year) to 33.4p thousand tonnes in 2025, though sparse early-year reporting makes its trajectory harder to benchmark precisely.
France delivered the most consistent growth among the mid-tier, expanding from 3.9 to 6.9 thousand tonnes (a 6.60% CAGR, +77.8%) with its decade total reaching 55.9 thousand tonnes. Germany inched higher from 5.6 to 6.2 thousand tonnes (a 1.06% CAGR, +10.0%), while Italy grew steadily from 2.2 to 2.9 thousand tonnes (a 2.87% CAGR, +29.0%).
On the losing side, Bulgaria declined sharply from 8.4 thousand tonnes to 4.8 thousand tonnes (a -5.92% CAGR, -42.3%), and the Netherlands contracted modestly from 3.2 to 2.8 thousand tonnes (a -1.51% CAGR, -12.8%).
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 129.1 | 104.5 | 115.6 | 75.7 | 123.2 | 103.9 | 104.9 | 96.1 | 76.9 | 79.1 | -5.29% | -50.0 | Declining |
| Spain | 22.0 | 43.5 | 43.7 | 60.0 | 49.6 | 48.8 | 45.4 | 33.1 | 30.2 | 33.2 | +4.69% | +11.2 | Ascending |
| Portugal | N/A | 17.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 27.9 | 29.3 | 35.7 | 33.4 | 33.4p | +13.33% | +15.5 | Ascending |
| Germany | 5.6 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 6.2 | +1.06% | +0.6 | Ascending |
| Bulgaria | 8.4d | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | -5.92% | -3.6 | Declining |
| France | 3.9 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 5.2b | 5.1 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 6.9 | +6.60% | +3.0 | Ascending |
| Netherlands | 3.2e | 4.0e | 4.6e | 4.5e | 3.6e | 3.6e | 3.0e | 3.2e | 3.0e | 2.8 | -1.51% | -0.4 | Declining |
| Italy | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9e | +2.87% | +0.6 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 200.2 | 199.2 | 220.4 | 196.5 | 230.6 | 212.7 | 211.8 | 197.7 | 172.8 | 175.3 | — | — | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
The largest producer is rarely the most stable, and the raspberry market illustrates this rule with unusual clarity. Poland, the dominant volume supplier with a mean output of 100.9 thousand tonnes, ranks only fifth for stability with a CV of 17.88% and the steepest maximum drawdown in the dataset at -34.56% — the drop from 129.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 75.7 thousand tonnes in 2019.
Germany claimed the top reliability rank with a CV of just 7.67%, the only country in the dataset to fall below the 10% threshold that marks very stable supply. Germany's worst single-year drawdown was a modest -11.21%, and its output oscillated within a narrow band of 5.6 to 7.5 thousand tonnes across the full decade. Italy ranked second for stability (11.26% CV, -12.33% max drawdown), pairing dependable output with gradual year-on-year growth.
At the opposite pole, Spain was the least stable supplier with a CV of 25.97% and a -27.19% maximum drawdown — the consequence of a boom-and-bust pattern that saw output more than double from 22.0 to 60.0 thousand tonnes before retreating again. Portugal posted a 19.80% CV with a shallow -6.28% drawdown, suggesting that while its annual output varied, the worst single-year shock was manageable.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 6.71 | 7.67% | -11.21% | 4 | 1 |
| Italy | 2.49 | 11.26% | -12.33% | 5 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 3.56 | 16.89% | -20.18% | 5 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 6.35 | 17.69% | -13.46% | 6 | 4 |
| Poland | 100.89 | 17.88% | -34.56% | 4 | 5 |
| France | 5.59 | 18.39% | -8.02% | 6 | 6 |
| Portugal | 29.61 | 19.80% | -6.28% | 3 | 7 |
| Spain | 40.96 | 25.97% | -27.19% | 4 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
EU raspberry harvested area contracted sharply over the decade, falling from 39.6 thousand hectares in 2016 to 26.5 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net loss of 13.1 thousand hectares, or 33.1%. The 2020 break point is stark: area dropped from 41.1 thousand hectares in 2019 to 29.0 thousand hectares in 2020 and never recovered, suggesting a structural rather than seasonal reduction.
Poland drove the EU-wide land retreat, slashing its raspberry area from 29.3 thousand hectares to 17.2 thousand hectares — a net cut of 12.1 thousand hectares (-41.3%, a -5.74% annualized growth rate). Poland's area contraction exceeded the total EU net reduction, meaning other countries collectively added raspberry hectares. The steepest year-on-year drop was between 2019 and 2020, when Poland cut from 29.5 to 17.9 thousand hectares in a single season.
Portugal was the clearest expansion story, growing from 1.1 thousand hectares in 2017 to 1.6 thousand hectares in 2025 (a +40.5% net gain, 7.04% annualized growth rate), mirroring its production ascent. Italy expanded marginally at 0.64% annually, while France held its area unchanged at 0.7 thousand hectares (0.00% growth rate, Stable).
Every other country contracted: Spain by 14.2% (-1.68% annually), Germany by 19.8% (-2.42%), Bulgaria by 15.3% (-1.83%), and the Netherlands by 15.0% (-1.79%). The near-universal contraction in area, set against rising production in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy, points to intensification and yield improvement in the ascendant markets rather than simple cropland expansion.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 29.3 | 29.3 | 29.6 | 29.5 | 17.9 | 19.8 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 19.3 | 17.2 | -12.1 | -5.74% | Contracting |
| Spain | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | -0.3 | -1.68% | Contracting |
| Portugal | N/A | 1.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6p | +0.4 | +7.04% | Expanding |
| Germany | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -2.42% | Contracting |
| Bulgaria | 1.8d | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | -0.3 | -1.83% | Contracting |
| France | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6b | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Netherlands | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.0 | -1.79% | Contracting |
| Italy | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4e | +0.0 | +0.64% | Expanding |
| EU-27 | 39.6 | 40.5 | 41.4 | 41.1 | 29.0 | 30.5 | 31.9 | 31.6 | 28.6 | 26.5 | — | — | Contracting |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country's raspberry production grew fastest, and which declined most?
Portugal grew fastest at a 13.33% CAGR, adding 15.5 thousand tonnes (+86.9%) between its first and last complete data points. Poland declined the most in both absolute and percentage terms among major producers, shedding 50.0 thousand tonnes at a -5.29% CAGR (-38.7%).
Which country is the most stable raspberry supplier?
Germany is the most stable supplier with a CV of just 7.67%, the only producer in the dataset to qualify as very stable (CV < 10%). Its worst single-year drawdown was -11.21%. Italy ranked second at 11.26% CV.
Where is EU raspberry farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU raspberry area contracted by 33.1% overall, driven by Poland's withdrawal of 12.1 thousand hectares (-41.3%). Portugal was the sole meaningful expander, adding 0.4 thousand hectares (+40.5% net). France held its area stable, while Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, and the Netherlands all contracted.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
