10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Year-by-year harvested production (1 000 tonnes) for the eight leading EU lettuces producers reveals sharp divergence. Spain dominates with 913.5 thousand tonnes in 2024, but this represents a modest decline from 927.4 in 2015 at a −0.17% CAGR. Italy grew from 476.5 to 519.6 thousand tonnes at a +0.97% CAGR, the only country among the top eight to post a positive compound growth rate. Germany held effectively flat at +0.09% CAGR.
Declines were concentrated in three countries. France fell from 229.1 to 163.0 thousand tonnes at a −3.71% CAGR, with a break-in-series flag for 2020 marking a methodological change. Belgium (BE) contracted from 54.8 to 37.8 thousand tonnes at −4.05% CAGR, a steady erosion of nearly one-third over the decade. Greece (EL) was the steepest decliner, falling from 70.1 to 32.3 thousand tonnes at −8.25% CAGR, with all values from 2016 onward flagged as estimated. The Netherlands (−0.42% CAGR) and Portugal (−0.01% CAGR) held essentially flat. The EU-27 total shows a decline from 2 332.0 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 2 243.5 in 2024, with 2018 data unavailable; excluding 2018, the peak year was 2021 at 2 443.7 thousand tonnes.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 927.4 | 929.9 | 976.1 | 934.7 | 1004.7 | 961.9 | 1063.8 | 966.5 | 863.4 | 913.5 | −0.17% | −13.9 | Stable |
| Italy | 476.5 | 475.3 | 473.5 | 488.0 | 486.9 | 487.0 | 490.3 | 468.9 | 512.6 | 519.6 | +0.97% | +43.0 | Stable |
| Germany | 215.7 | 206.8 | 226.5 | 219.9 | 233.8 | 219.0 | 220.5 | 232.3 | 206.5 | 217.4 | +0.09% | +1.7 | Stable |
| France | 229.1 | 228.4 | 218.8 | 221.5 | 215.7 | 195.1b | 184.0 | 178.8 | 158.2 | 163.0 | −3.71% | −66.0 | Declining |
| Netherlands | 119.5 | 118.0 | 107.3 | 106.8 | 101.6 | 104.4 | 109.2 | 103.4 | 107.3 | 115.1 | −0.42% | −4.4 | Stable |
| Portugal | 56.9 | 52.0 | 56.4 | 45.2 | 50.8 | 62.0 | 74.8 | 56.4 | 69.8p | 56.9p | −0.01% | −0.0 | Stable |
| Greece | 70.1 | 68.5e | 64.3e | 58.5e | 47.4e | 51.4e | 59.6e | 36.6e | 31.7e | 32.3e | −8.25% | −37.8 | Declining |
| Belgium | 54.8 | 52.6 | 53.4 | 47.9 | 47.3 | 45.5 | 44.8 | 44.4 | 40.8 | 37.8 | −4.05% | −17.0 | Declining |
| EU-27 total** | 2 332.0 | 2 334.9 | 2 399.1 | N/A | 2 402.4 | 2 337.4 | 2 443.7 | 2 272.9 | 2 172.7 | 2 243.5 | N/A | N/A | — |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability, measured by coefficient of variation (CV%), reveals which countries offer the most predictable harvests. Lower CV% values indicate tighter year-to-year consistency; higher values signal volatility. Max drawdown captures the worst peak-to-trough decline within the decade.
Italy ranks first in stability with a 3.22% CV, meaning its 487.9 thousand tonne mean annual output deviated by roughly 15.7 thousand tonnes — extremely consistent and well below the 10% threshold for very stable supply. Germany follows closely at 3.98% CV, with output hovering near 219.8 thousand tonnes. The Netherlands and Spain, at 5.38% and 5.43% CV respectively, also qualify as very stable despite Spain being by far the largest producer at a 954.2 thousand tonne mean. Belgium (11.08% CV) sits at the boundary of very stable and moderately volatile territory. At the other end, Greece registers a 26.57% CV with a dramatic −38.55% max drawdown, reflecting the loss of nearly 38 thousand tonnes from its peak. Portugal (14.38% CV, −24.66% max drawdown) and France (12.85% CV) fall into the moderately volatile category.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 487.86 | 3.22% | −4.37% | 6 | 1 |
| Germany | 219.83 | 3.98% | −11.09% | 5 | 2 |
| Netherlands | 109.25 | 5.38% | −9.04% | 7 | 3 |
| Spain | 954.20 | 5.43% | −10.67% | 5 | 4 |
| Belgium | 46.93 | 11.08% | −10.17% | 5 | 5 |
| France | 199.27 | 12.85% | −11.50% | 5 | 6 |
| Portugal | 58.11 | 14.38% | −24.66% | 7 | 7 |
| Greece | 52.03 | 26.57% | −38.55% | 5 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
Harvested area data (1 000 hectares) tracks where lettuces farmland expanded or contracted across the top eight producers. The EU-27 total fell from 88.6 thousand ha in 2015 to 82.9 thousand ha in 2024 — a 6.4% decline — with most of that reduction concentrated in Greece, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Spain, as the dominant landholder at 34.3 thousand ha in 2015, accounted for nearly 39% of total EU lettuces area throughout the decade.
Portugal was the only top producer to expand area, adding 0.2 thousand ha at a +0.8% annual growth rate, though growth signs flagged as provisional for 2023–2024. Spain held its land area roughly stable (−0.5% growth rate), as did Italy (−0.01%) and Germany (−0.4%). France contracted the most in absolute terms (−1.7 thousand ha, −19.7% net), closely matching its 28.8% production decline and indicating both land abandonment and output reduction. Greece lost 57.2% of its lettuces area (−2.1 thousand ha), the steepest percentage decline among all countries. The Netherlands (−13.5%) and Belgium (−30.8%) also posted significant contractions, with Belgium's −4.01% growth rate being the second-fastest rate of land loss after Greece.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 34.3 | 35.6 | 34.5 | 33.7 | 35.2 | 34.0 | 34.1 | 33.4 | 33.2 | 32.8 | −1.5 | −0.50% | Stable |
| Italy | 19.7 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 19.9 | 19.9 | 17.7 | 19.4 | 19.7 | −0.0 | −0.01% | Stable |
| Germany | 6.6 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 6.3 | −0.2 | −0.40% | Stable |
| France | 8.8 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.1b | 7.5 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 7.1 | −1.7 | −2.41% | Contracting |
| Netherlands | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | −0.5 | −1.60% | Contracting |
| Portugal | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.6p | 2.3p | +0.2 | +0.80% | Expanding |
| Greece | 3.7 | 3.6e | 3.3e | 3.3e | 2.6e | 2.9e | 3.0e | 2.0e | 1.8e | 1.6e | −2.1 | −9.00% | Contracting |
| Belgium | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | −0.4 | −4.01% | Contracting |
| EU-27 total** | 88.6 | 91.0 | 90.7 | 89.1 | 90.4 | 87.7 | 87.2 | 84.4 | 83.8 | 82.9 | N/A | N/A | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew its lettuces production the fastest, and which declined the most?
Italy was the only top-eight producer to record positive growth at +0.97% CAGR, adding 43.0 thousand tonnes to reach 519.6 thousand tonnes in 2024. Greece experienced the steepest decline at −8.25% CAGR, falling from 70.1 to 32.3 thousand tonnes, with all values from 2016 onward flagged as estimated.
Which country is the most reliable lettuces supplier in the EU?
Italy ranks as the most stable supplier with a coefficient of variation of just 3.22%, meaning its annual output has deviated from its 487.9 thousand tonne mean by roughly 15.7 thousand tonnes across the decade. Germany (3.98% CV) follows as the next most reliable producer.
Where is lettuces farmland expanding and shrinking within the EU?
Lettuces farmland is expanding only in Portugal (+0.2 thousand ha, +7.4% net change, though with provisional flags for 2023–2024). It is shrinking most sharply in Greece (−2.1 thousand ha, −57.2%), France (−1.7 thousand ha, −19.7%), the Netherlands (−0.5 thousand ha, −13.5%), and Belgium (−0.4 thousand ha, −30.8%).
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
