10-Year Production Trajectory: Shrinking Across the Board
The European currant sector is characterized by one dominant player and a collection of small-to-mid-sized producers, nearly all of whom have seen output decline. EU-27 aggregate production fell from 176 100 tonnes in 2017 (the earliest year with complete data) to 143 100 tonnes in 2024, a decline of 18.7% over seven years (approximately –2.9% annualized).
Poland (PL) is the undisputed heavyweight, contributing 141 930 tonnes per year on average — more than the next seven countries combined. Its production peaked at 166 100 tonnes in 2016 before sliding to 100 200 tonnes in 2024 (–5.1% CAGR). Germany (DE), the second-largest producer, saw output erode from 13 900 tonnes to 9 600 tonnes (–4.0% CAGR). Denmark (DK) underwent the most dramatic contraction: output collapsed from 7 900 tonnes to 1 100 tonnes, a net decline of –86.2% and a –19.8% CAGR.
The Netherlands (NL) was the only country to record a net increase, gaining 100 tonnes (0.1% CAGR). France (FR) was essentially flat, posting a net decline of 500 tonnes (–0.5% CAGR) across a narrow 8 200–12 900-tonne range.
Poland's trajectory is the primary driver of EU-level trends. Its 59 700-tonne decline accounts for more than the entire EU-27 net loss, as stability in smaller producers partially offset Poland's contraction. The 2018 season was a notable outlier: EU output spiked to 223 200 tonnes (27% above trend), driven by surges in Polish (164 600 t), German (16 100 t), and Lithuanian (5 900 t) harvests, followed by a 22% drop in 2019.
Hungary (HU) declined at the second-fastest rate after Denmark, dropping 45.2% to 1 900 tonnes (–6.5% CAGR). Lithuania (LT) shed 39.7%, ending at 2 600 tonnes. By 2024, the four smallest producers' combined output of 9 600 tonnes was less than 10% of Poland's total.
All values in 1 000 t. *EU CAGR computed from first available year (2017). e = estimated, b = break in series.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 159.9 | 166.1 | 128.8 | 164.6 | 126.2 | 145.9 | 152.0 | 145.8 | 129.7 | 100.2 | –5.1% | –59.7 | Declining |
| DE | 13.9 | 14.0 | 12.5 | 16.1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 13.8 | 14.2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | –4.0% | –4.2 | Declining |
| FR | 11.2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 10.9 | 10.7 | 10.0b | 10.0 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 10.7 | –0.5% | –0.5 | Stable |
| NL | 7.5e | 7.0e | 4.7e | 7.5e | 7.5e | 7.6e | 7.5e | 8.1e | 7.8e | 7.5e | +0.1% | +0.1 | Stable |
| LT | 4.4 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 2.6 | –5.5% | –1.7 | Declining |
| AT | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | –1.0% | –0.3 | Stable |
| HU | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | –6.5% | –1.6 | Declining |
| DK | 7.9 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | –19.8% | –6.8 | Declining |
| EU-27 | N/A | N/A | 176.1 | 223.2 | 174.1 | 195.8 | 204.3 | 200.2 | 178.5 | 143.1 | –2.9%* | –33.0 | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV%) in year-to-year production — reveals that the most stable suppliers are mid-sized producers, not the volume leader. Lower CV% means tighter output control and more predictable harvests.
France (FR) earns the top stability rank (CV 10.9%), with production in a relatively tight band despite a 2020 break-in-series revision. The Netherlands (NL) ranks second (CV 12.3%), though its data are entirely estimated. Germany (DE), despite declining, ranks third (CV 13.6%).
Poland (PL), the undisputed production leader, ranks fourth in stability (CV 13.9%). Its worst year-over-year drawdown was –23.4%, meaning a buyer relying exclusively on Poland could have faced a nearly one-quarter shortfall in the worst season.
The most volatile suppliers occupy the bottom ranks. Lithuania (CV 29.6%) recorded a maximum drawdown of –66.9% — a catastrophic single-season collapse. Denmark (CV 81.3%) is the least reliable: its standard deviation nearly matches the mean, requiring substantial inventory buffers for any Danish-dependent supply agreement.
The stability gap between Poland (rank 4) and the most stable suppliers is modest — CV% range of 10.9% to 13.9% — meaning the market leader does not sacrifice reliability for volume. Sourcing exclusively from France would cap annual availability at roughly 10 000–12 000 tonnes, requiring buyers to diversify across multiple smaller suppliers.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FR | 10.4 | 10.9% | –26.4% | 5 | 1 |
| NL | 7.3 | 12.3% | –32.9% | 2 | 2 |
| DE | 12.9 | 13.6% | –33.1% | 5 | 3 |
| PL | 141.9 | 13.9% | –23.4% | 4 | 4 |
| HU | 3.7 | 25.7% | –24.7% | 4 | 5 |
| AT | 3.8 | 27.2% | –43.9% | 5 | 6 |
| LT | 3.8 | 29.6% | –66.9% | 5 | 7 |
| DK | 2.5 | 81.3% | –55.5% | 7 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
Across the EU-27, currant cultivation area remained broadly stable, fluctuating between 59 300 and 61 300 hectares and ending at 61 300 hectares in 2024, modestly above the 60 400 hectares recorded in 2017.
Poland commands 44 000–45 000 hectares — approximately 73% of EU currant area. Despite a 37.3% production decline, Polish area remained flat (0.2% annual growth), indicating declining output stems from yield erosion rather than land abandonment. Yield in Poland fell from approximately 3.6 t/ha in 2015 to 2.2 t/ha in 2024.
Germany (DE) and Hungary (HU) both contracted currant acreage — Germany by 200 hectares (–1.0% annually) and Hungary by 300 hectares (–3.4% annually). Denmark's contraction was most severe: from 1 200 to 300 hectares (–14.3% annually), aligning with its 86.2% production collapse.
Austria (AT) and France (FR) expanded area — Austria by 100 hectares (3.6% annually) and France by 200 hectares (0.8% annually). Both saw land grow faster than production: France's area grew 0.8% while production fell 0.5%, and Austria's land grew 3.6% while production fell 1.0%.
Lithuania (LT) held its area constant at 3 800–4 400 hectares, with zero net change, despite a 39.7% production decline. This reinforces the defining structural pattern: declining currant output is driven by falling yields, not shrinking acreage. At the EU level, area grew 0.2% annually while production declined 2.9% annually — yield per hectare deteriorated by roughly 3% per year — with nearly every country showing production falling faster than area.
All values in 1 000 ha. *EU land change computed from 2017 baseline. b = break in series.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL | 44.4 | 44.2 | 44.0 | 43.6 | 43.4 | 42.5 | 43.4 | 44.8 | 44.4 | 45.0 | +0.6 | +0.2% | Stable |
| DE | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | –0.2 | –1.0% | Contracting |
| FR | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.4b | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 2.9 | +0.2 | +0.8% | Expanding |
| NL | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | –0.1 | –1.5% | Contracting |
| LT | 3.8 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 0.0% | Stable |
| AT | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | +0.1 | +3.6% | Expanding |
| HU | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | –0.3 | –3.4% | Contracting |
| DK | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | –0.9 | –14.3% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | N/A | N/A | 60.4 | 60.4 | 59.4 | 59.3 | 59.5 | 60.8 | 60.8 | 61.3 | +0.9* | +0.2%* | Stable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country experienced the fastest decline in currant production?
Denmark saw the steepest production collapse, falling from 7 900 tonnes in 2015 to 1 100 tonnes in 2024 — an 86.2% decline corresponding to a –19.8% CAGR. Hungary followed with a –45.2% decline (–6.5% CAGR).
Which country is the most stable currant supplier in the EU?
France ranks first in supply stability with a coefficient of variation of 10.9%, producing 8 200–12 900 tonnes per year with moderate consistency. The Netherlands ranks second (CV 12.3%), though its data are entirely estimated.
Where is currant farmland expanding or shrinking in the EU?
Austria expanded currant acreage by 37.5% (from 200 to 300 hectares), while Denmark contracted most severely, shedding 75.0% of its currant land (from 1 200 to 300 hectares). Overall EU currant area remained broadly stable with a marginal 0.2% annual increase from 2017–2024.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
