10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
EU-wide blackcurrant production peaked at 158.6 thousand tonnes in 2018 before entering a broadly declining path, falling to a decade low of 88.8 thousand tonnes in 2024 and recovering modestly to 104.2 thousand tonnes in 2025. The trajectory is defined almost entirely by Poland, which alone accounted for the overwhelming majority of EU volume across the period.
Poland's output fell from 130.8 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 78.7 thousand tonnes in 2025, a net decline of 52.1 thousand tonnes (a -5.49% CAGR, -39.8% over the decade). This single contraction drove the entire EU aggregate lower. Among the mid-tier producers, the picture is mixed. France bucked the trend, climbing from 6.7 to 10.1 thousand tonnes (a 4.64% CAGR, +50.4%) to become the second-largest producer by decade total. Germany drifted lower to 5.9 thousand tonnes (a -1.62% CAGR), while Lithuania fell steeply from 2.9 to 1.2 thousand tonnes (a -9.46% CAGR, -59.1%).
The fastest-growing producers were the smallest. Finland surged at an 11.05% CAGR, adding 1.5 thousand tonnes (+156.8%) to reach 2.4 thousand tonnes in 2025. Austria expanded at an 8.97% CAGR (+116.7%). At the other extreme, Czechia collapsed at a -10.55% CAGR, its output shrinking from 1.8 to just 0.7 thousand tonnes (-63.3%).
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, e = estimated.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 130.8 | 99.7 | 126.3 | 92.2 | 110.5 | 114.8 | 102.1 | 91.5 | 67.9 | 78.7 | -5.49% | -52.1 | Declining |
| France | 6.7 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 7.9b | 8.0 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 8.6 | 10.1 | +4.64% | +3.4 | Ascending |
| Germany | 6.8 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 5.9 | -1.62% | -0.9 | Declining |
| Lithuania | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | -9.46% | -1.7 | Declining |
| Netherlands | 2.2e | 1.9e | 1.8e | 1.6e | 1.5e | 1.5e | 1.6e | 1.7e | 1.6e | 1.6 | -3.68% | -0.6 | Declining |
| Finland | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | +11.05% | +1.5 | Ascending |
| Austria | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 1.3 | +8.97% | +0.7 | Ascending |
| Czechia | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 | -10.55% | -1.1 | Declining |
| EU-27 | N/A | 126.6 | 158.6 | 115.3 | 135.7 | 141.2 | 129.2 | 114.6 | 88.8 | 104.2 | — | — | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Volume and reliability rarely align in the blackcurrant market. Poland, the runaway volume leader with a decade total of 1,014.5 thousand tonnes, ranks only third for stability, posting a coefficient of variation (CV) of 18.63% and a worst single-year drawdown of -26.97%. The most stable supplier was the Netherlands, whose CV of just 12.05% and shallow -13.64% maximum drawdown earned it the top reliability rank despite a modest 1.7 thousand tonne average.
France ranked second for stability (12.78% CV), combining meaningful volume with dependable output — a rare pairing in this dataset. At the volatile end of the scale, Czechia was the least reliable producer, with a CV of 51.69% and a punishing -75.45% maximum drawdown, meaning a buyer could have seen supply from Czechia fall by three-quarters in a single year. Austria (42.87% CV) and Lithuania (39.24% CV) were similarly erratic.
Under the standard reading, a CV below 10% signals a very stable supply, 10–20% is moderately stable, and above 20% is volatile. On that basis, the Netherlands, France, and Poland form the moderately stable tier, while Germany, Finland, Lithuania, Austria, and Czechia all fall into volatile territory.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 1.70 | 12.05% | -13.64% | 7 | 1 |
| France | 8.55 | 12.78% | -18.29% | 5 | 2 |
| Poland | 101.45 | 18.63% | -26.97% | 5 | 3 |
| Germany | 5.13 | 28.39% | -57.43% | 5 | 4 |
| Finland | 1.41 | 30.47% | -34.15% | 6 | 5 |
| Lithuania | 2.85 | 39.24% | -69.87% | 4 | 6 |
| Austria | 1.37 | 42.87% | -61.11% | 5 | 7 |
| Czechia | 1.13 | 51.69% | -75.45% | 5 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
While production swung widely, the land base for EU blackcurrants proved remarkably steady. Total EU harvested area moved within a narrow band, from 49.2 thousand hectares in 2017 to 49.6 thousand hectares in 2025. This stability in area against a falling production total points to declining yields rather than abandonment as the driver of Poland's shrinking output.
Poland's area was essentially flat, ending the decade at 36.6 thousand hectares (a 0.05% annualized growth rate, +0.1 thousand ha net) — yet its production fell sharply, confirming the efficiency gap. France also held its area stable at 2.5 thousand hectares. The clearest expansions came from Finland, which grew its area by 0.5 thousand hectares (+34.0%, a 3.31% annualized rate), and Austria (+31.2%, a 3.07% rate), mirroring their production gains.
Contraction was concentrated in three markets. Czechia slashed its blackcurrant area by 67.8% (a -11.82% annualized rate), the steepest land retreat in the dataset, consistent with its production collapse. The Netherlands cut area by 28.6% and Germany by 20.8%. In every case where land contracted meaningfully, production followed it lower.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 36.5 | 36.1 | 35.8 | 35.6 | 34.2 | 35.0 | 35.6 | 35.2 | 35.9 | 36.6 | +0.1 | 0.05% | Stable |
| France | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1b | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.0 | 0.22% | Stable |
| Germany | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -2.55% | Contracting |
| Lithuania | 3.4 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | -0.1 | -0.30% | Stable |
| Netherlands | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -3.67% | Contracting |
| Finland | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.5 | 3.31% | Expanding |
| Austria | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | +0.0 | 3.07% | Expanding |
| Czechia | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -11.82% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | N/A | 49.2 | 48.9 | 47.9 | 47.2 | 47.5 | 48.1 | 47.9 | 48.6 | 49.6 | — | — | Stable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country's blackcurrant production grew fastest, and which declined most?
Finland grew fastest at an 11.05% CAGR (+156.8% over the decade), followed by Austria at 8.97%. Poland recorded the largest absolute decline, shedding 52.1 thousand tonnes (-39.8%), while Czechia fell most steeply in percentage terms at a -10.55% CAGR.
Which country is the most stable blackcurrant supplier?
The Netherlands was the most reliable supplier, with the lowest coefficient of variation (12.05%) and the shallowest maximum drawdown (-13.64%). France ranked second on stability (12.78% CV).
Where is EU blackcurrant farmland expanding or shrinking?
Finland (+34.0%) and Austria (+31.2%) expanded their harvested area the most, while Czechia contracted the sharpest at -67.8%, ahead of the Netherlands (-28.6%) and Germany (-20.8%). Total EU area stayed broadly stable near 49 thousand hectares.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
