10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Over the 2016–2025 period, EU sweet lupins production was dominated by Poland, which accounted for more than 80% of total output among the eight largest producers. Polish output rose from 202.4 thousand tonnes in 2016 to an estimated 411.4 thousand tonnes in 2025 — more than doubling over the decade, equivalent to an 8.20% CAGR. The trajectory was not linear: production dipped to a trough of 122.0 thousand tonnes in 2018 before recovering to 257.4 thousand tonnes in 2020 and accelerating through the 2020s. Poland's 2025 figure carries an estimated (e) flag.
Germany, the second-largest producer, showed essentially no growth over the decade (0.13% CAGR, from 50.0 to 50.6 thousand tonnes), classifying it as Stable. German output fluctuated between a low of 22.3 thousand tonnes in 2018 and a high of 57.2 thousand tonnes in 2024, reflecting interannual variability without a directional trend.
Greece (3.41% CAGR) and Lithuania (4.28% CAGR) both posted ascending trajectories. Greek production rose from 8.5 to 11.6 thousand tonnes — all values flagged as estimated (e) — while Lithuania grew from 4.6 to 6.7 thousand tonnes, with its 2016–2021 values carrying a definition-differs (d) flag. Italy recorded the highest relative growth rate (33.86% CAGR), expanding from just 0.1 to 2.1 thousand tonnes, though from a negligible starting base.
On the declining side, France lost half its production (-7.64% CAGR, from 16.8 to 8.2 thousand tonnes), with a break-in-series flag in 2020 reflecting a methodological change. Czechia suffered the steepest drop (-11.05% CAGR), falling from 5.8 to 2.0 thousand tonnes — a 65.1% contraction. Spain remained essentially stable (-0.59% CAGR, -5.2%), with its 2025 value flagged as provisional (p).
All values in 1 000 t. e = estimated, b = break in series, d = definition differs, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 202.4 | 165.5 | 122.0 | 145.7 | 257.4 | 221.4 | 354.3 | 275.3 | 375.7 | 411.4e | +8.20% | +209.1 | Ascending |
| Germany | 50.0 | 52.8 | 22.3 | 25.6 | 34.1 | 53.4 | 53.0 | 45.5 | 57.2 | 50.6 | +0.13% | +0.6 | Stable |
| Greece | 8.5e | 12.6e | 18.6e | 22.9e | 21.8e | 15.9e | 15.3e | 17.4e | 14.9e | 11.6e | +3.41% | +3.0 | Ascending |
| France | 16.8 | 12.6 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 13.0b | 15.1 | 11.0 | 10.9 | 10.1 | 8.2 | -7.64% | -8.6 | Declining |
| Lithuania | 4.6d | 3.8d | 2.5d | 3.4d | 4.3d | 4.2d | 4.4 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 6.7 | +4.28% | +2.1 | Ascending |
| Czechia | 5.8 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.0 | -11.05% | -3.8 | Declining |
| Spain | 3.5 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 3.3p | -0.59% | -0.2 | Stable |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | +33.86% | +1.9 | Ascending |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Sweet lupins production across the EU's top eight producers falls entirely in the "volatile" category (CV > 20%), underscoring the crop's inherent variability. Spain recorded the lowest coefficient of variation (22.98%), earning the top stability rank despite a modest mean output of 2.61 thousand tonnes and a maximum drawdown of -40.62%. Lithuania ranked second (CV 25.01%, max drawdown -32.80%), followed by Greece (CV 26.48%, max drawdown -26.76%) and Germany (CV 26.70%, max drawdown -57.77%).
Germany's position at rank 4 is notable: despite being the second-largest producer by total volume, its max drawdown of -57.77% — the deepest among the eight — reflects the severe production swing from its 2016 level of 50.0 thousand tonnes to a 2018 trough of 22.3 thousand tonnes. France (CV 27.86%, max drawdown -44.54%) ranked fifth, followed by Poland (CV 37.65%, max drawdown -26.30%). Czechia (CV 48.54%) and Italy (CV 52.78%) recorded the highest volatility.
The volume-stability trade-off is particularly stark for Poland. As the dominant supplier with a mean output of 253.12 thousand tonnes — nearly six times the next-largest producer — Poland's CV of 37.65% means that buyers relying on Polish supply face significant interannual swings. A buyer sourcing entirely from Poland would have experienced a production range from 122.0 thousand tonnes in 2018 to 411.4 thousand tonnes in 2025, with five years below the decade mean.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2.61 | 22.98% | -40.62% | 5 | 1 |
| Lithuania | 4.43 | 25.01% | -32.80% | 6 | 2 |
| Greece | 15.96 | 26.48% | -26.76% | 6 | 3 |
| Germany | 44.45 | 26.70% | -57.77% | 3 | 4 |
| France | 11.18 | 27.86% | -44.54% | 6 | 5 |
| Poland | 253.12 | 37.65% | -26.30% | 5 | 6 |
| Czechia | 3.45 | 48.54% | -36.72% | 7 | 7 |
| Italy | 1.00 | 52.78% | -26.21% | 6 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
Sweet lupins harvested area across the EU-27 expanded significantly, rising from 179.3 thousand hectares in 2016 to an estimated 271.1 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net gain of 91.8 thousand hectares (+51.2%, a 4.70% annualized growth rate).
Poland drove the expansion, increasing its acreage by 87.5 thousand hectares (+68.9%, a 6.00% annualized rate) from 126.9 to 214.4 thousand hectares. Greece expanded by 5.0 thousand hectares (+98.6%, 7.92%/yr), though all Greek area data carry estimated (e) flags and fluctuate significantly. Lithuania added 1.2 thousand hectares (+32.6%, 3.19%/yr), and Italy expanded from a symbolic 0.1 thousand hectares to 1.2 thousand hectares (+1,233.3%, 33.35%/yr), though from a negligible base.
Germany held its area essentially flat (-0.6 thousand hectares, -2.1%, -0.24%/yr, classified as Stable). France contracted by 4.0 thousand hectares (-51.2%, -7.67%/yr), Czechia by 1.6 thousand hectares (-53.5%, -8.16%/yr), and Spain by 0.6 thousand hectares (-16.5%, -1.98%/yr).
Comparing production CAGR against area growth rates reveals distinct national strategies. Poland's production CAGR (8.20%) outpaced its area expansion (6.00%/yr), indicating improving per-hectare yields alongside acreage growth. Italy's production (33.86% CAGR) tracked closely with its area expansion (33.35%/yr), reflecting growth driven almost entirely by land allocation from a tiny starting point. France's production decline (-7.64% CAGR) was nearly matched by its area contraction (-7.67%/yr), suggesting that the reduction was driven by land withdrawal rather than yield deterioration. Czechia showed a similar pattern, with production (-11.05% CAGR) declining slightly faster than area (-8.16%/yr), pointing to some additional yield pressure.
All values in 1 000 ha. e = estimated, b = break in series, d = definition differs, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 126.9 | 103.3 | 95.6 | 117.4 | 167.8 | 139.1 | 193.4 | 157.1 | 199.4 | 214.4e | +87.5 | +6.00% | Expanding |
| Germany | 28.6 | 29.0 | 23.4 | 21.0 | 22.3 | 29.0 | 31.7 | 25.4 | 26.1 | 28.0 | -0.6 | -0.24% | Stable |
| Greece | 5.0e | 13.9e | 17.5e | 15.3e | 13.4e | 11.6e | 11.9e | 13.3e | 19.9e | 10.0e | +5.0 | +7.92% | Expanding |
| France | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 5.9b | 6.7 | 5.3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 3.8 | -4.0 | -7.67% | Contracting |
| Lithuania | 3.8d | 2.9d | 2.5d | 3.6d | 4.1d | 4.6d | 4.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +1.2 | +3.19% | Expanding |
| Czechia | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -1.6 | -8.16% | Contracting |
| Spain | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 3.0p | -0.6 | -1.98% | Contracting |
| Italy | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.2 | +1.1 | +33.35% | Expanding |
| EU-27 | 179.3 | 165.3 | 150.3 | 173.7 | 226.3 | 204.5 | 259.8 | 222.3 | 263.3 | 271.1 | +91.8 | +4.70% | Expanding |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country increased sweet lupins production the most from 2016 to 2025?
Poland posted the largest absolute growth, adding 209.1 thousand tonnes (+103.3%, an 8.20% CAGR). Italy recorded the fastest relative increase (+1,280%, a 33.86% CAGR from 0.1 to 2.1 thousand tonnes). Czechia suffered the steepest decline (-65.1%, an -11.05% CAGR).
Which country is the most stable sweet lupins supplier in the EU?
Spain ranked first for supply stability with a coefficient of variation of 22.98%, followed by Lithuania (25.01%) and Greece (26.48%). However, all top eight producers fall in the volatile range (CV > 20%), reflecting the crop's inherent variability across Europe.
Is EU sweet lupins farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU-27 harvested area expanded by 91.8 thousand hectares (+51.2%) between 2016 and 2025. Poland led the expansion, adding 87.5 thousand hectares (+68.9%). France (-51.2%), Czechia (-53.5%), and Spain (-16.5%) reduced their acreage.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
