The Decade in Numbers: EU Output Up a Quarter, Poland Up a Third
The complete member-state sums put EU-27 sweet lupin production at 472 100 tonnes (472.1 thousand tonnes) in 2024, against 378 200 tonnes in 2015 — a net gain of 24.8%, or a compound annual growth rate of 2.49% per year. It is a rise with two clear interruptions: the window low of 184 100 tonnes in 2018 and a second dip to 360 100 tonnes in 2023.
Poland set the direction. Polish output moved from 285 800 tonnes in 2015 to 375 700 tonnes in 2024, up 31.5% and a CAGR of 3.09% per year — faster than the EU total. Germany, the second producer, rose 49.4% over the same window, from 38 300 to 57 200 tonnes.
The line is not smooth. The EU-27 coefficient of variation across the ten years is 27.1%, meaning the annual harvest typically deviates from the decade average by more than a quarter. A business case built on a single year of this crop is built on a moving number.
EU-27 sweet lupin production as the sum of member states, 2015-2024. Window low: 184.1 in 2018; window high: 472.1 in 2024. Net change +24.8%, CAGR +2.49%/yr, CV 27.1%. Dataset apro_cpsh1.
| Year | EU-27 member-state sum (1 000 t) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 378.2 |
| 2016 | 292.8 |
| 2017 | 260.8 |
| 2018 | 184.1 |
| 2019 | 212.2 |
| 2020 | 338.0 |
| 2021 | 317.7 |
| 2022 | 445.4 |
| 2023 | 360.1 |
| 2024 | 472.1 |
One Country, Four Fifths: Concentration and What It Means for Entrants
In 2024 Poland produced 375 700 tonnes of sweet lupin — 79.6% of the EU-27 total. Germany added 57 200 tonnes (12.1%) and the two countries together accounted for 91.7% of EU output. Greece (15 000 tonnes, 3.2%), France (10 100 tonnes, 2.1%) and Lithuania (5 900 tonnes, 1.2%) complete the top five.
A decade earlier the ranking looked different below the top two. Poland's share was 75.6% (285 800 tonnes) and Germany's 10.1% (38 300 tonnes), while Italy held third place with roughly 19 700 tonnes (5.2%) and France fourth with 17 400 tonnes (4.6%). Both have since been overtaken by Greece and Lithuania.
For a new entrant the concentration cuts both ways: 79.6% of the market sits in one country's agronomy, so every other member state is effectively a small-batch supplier. The countries outside Poland and Germany shared 8 200 tonnes of the 2024 harvest between them.
Top five producers in 2024 with their 2015 shares. Italy, third in 2015 with about 19.7 thousand tonnes (5.2%), is outside the 2024 top five. Dash = not in that year's top five. Dataset apro_cpsh1.
| Country | 2024 production (1 000 t) | Share 2024 | Share 2015 | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 375.7 | 79.6% | 75.6% | +31.5% |
| Germany | 57.2 | 12.1% | 10.1% | +49.4% |
| Greece | 15.0 | 3.2% | — | — |
| France | 10.1 | 2.1% | 4.6% | -42.0% |
| Lithuania | 5.9 | 1.2% | — | — |
| Italy (2015 rank 3) | — | — | 5.2% | — |
The Volatility Math: From 122 000 Tonnes to 375 700 Tonnes in Six Years
Poland's national series shows how far a lupin year can move. The low came in 2018 at 122 000 tonnes and the record in 2024 at 375 700 tonnes. In between the crop produced 145 700 tonnes (2019), 257 400 (2020), 221 400 (2021), 354 300 (2022) and 275 300 (2023) — two steps forward, one back, repeatedly.
Poland's coefficient of variation over 2015-2024 is 33.6%, well above the EU-27 series' 27.1%. The 2018 trough is barely a third of the 2024 record: same country, same crop, six years apart.
Land barely moved. Poland grew sweet lupin on 207 800 hectares in 2015 and 199 400 hectares in 2024, slightly less, while output rose 31.5%. The 2024 average yield was 1.88 tonnes per hectare; Germany's was 2.19 tonnes per hectare on the same crop.
Poland's annual sweet lupin production, 2015-2024. Window low 122.0 (2018), window high 375.7 (2024), CV 33.6%, net change +31.5%, CAGR +3.09%/yr. Dataset apro_cpsh1.
| Year | Poland production (1 000 t) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | 285.8 |
| 2016 | 202.4 |
| 2017 | 165.5 |
| 2018 | 122.0 |
| 2019 | 145.7 |
| 2020 | 257.4 |
| 2021 | 221.4 |
| 2022 | 354.3 |
| 2023 | 275.3 |
| 2024 | 375.7 |
The Aggregate-Line Trap: Three Official Points Against Ten Member-State Sums
Read the official EU-27 aggregate line for sweet lupin inside this window and you get only three values: 292 800 tonnes in 2016, 260 800 in 2017 and 184 100 in 2018. Taken alone, the last available official point is 2018 — a fall of 37.1% in two years that says nothing about what came after. The next official point for this crop is 2025.
The member-state sums carry the rest of the story: 212 200 tonnes in 2019, 338 000 in 2020, 317 700 in 2021, 445 400 in 2022, 360 100 in 2023 and 472 100 in 2024. Measured across all reporting countries, the same crop rose by a quarter over the decade instead of ending in a collapse.
The three official points and the member-state sums coincide for 2016-2018, so the caveat is not about conflicting values but about missing coverage: an aggregate line that stops in 2018 cannot describe a decade that runs to 2024. For this crop, the ten-year picture has to be built from the country totals.
Official EU-27 aggregate line against the sum of member states, 2015-2024. The official aggregate has only three points inside this window (2016-2018); the next official point is 2025. Dash = no official aggregate value. Dataset apro_cpsh1.
| Year | Official EU-27 aggregate (1 000 t) | Member-state sum (1 000 t) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | — | 378.2 |
| 2016 | 292.8 | 292.8 |
| 2017 | 260.8 | 260.8 |
| 2018 | 184.1 | 184.1 |
| 2019 | — | 212.2 |
| 2020 | — | 338.0 |
| 2021 | — | 317.7 |
| 2022 | — | 445.4 |
| 2023 | — | 360.1 |
| 2024 | — | 472.1 |
A Decision Checklist for a Small Farm: Soya's Parallel Rise and Two Diverging Paths
Lupin is a small market; soya is the scale reference. EU soya production rose from 2 443 200 tonnes in 2015 to 3 070 900 tonnes in 2024, +25.7% — almost exactly the lupin increase of 24.8%, but on a crop roughly six times larger. A small farm entering protein crops faces the same direction of travel in both, at very different volumes.
The paths inside lupin diverge. Germany grew 49.4% (38 300 to 57 200 tonnes, CAGR 4.56%) and Poland 31.5% (285 800 to 375 700 tonnes, CAGR 3.09%), while France moved the other way: 17 400 to 10 100 tonnes, -42.0% and a CAGR of -5.87%. Same crop, same window, opposite direction.
The checklist the data supports: concentration (79.6% of EU output in one country), volatility (Poland's CV 33.6% against the EU-27 series' 27.1%), and area that is flat to falling in the leading producer. Add the incomplete official aggregate line, and the practical rule is to plan on the member-state series and on a multi-year average rather than on any single harvest.
National trends, 2015 vs 2024. CAGR = compound annual growth rate over the window; CV = coefficient of variation of annual production. EU soya is shown as a scale reference. Dash = not shown. Dataset apro_cpsh1.
| Country | 2015 (1 000 t) | 2024 (1 000 t) | Net change | CAGR | CV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland | 285.8 | 375.7 | +31.5% | +3.09%/yr | 33.6% |
| Germany | 38.3 | 57.2 | +49.4% | +4.56%/yr | 27.3% |
| France | 17.4 | 10.1 | -42.0% | -5.87%/yr | — |
| EU soya (reference) | 2 443.2 | 3 070.9 | +25.7% | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
How much sweet lupin does the EU produce?
EU member states produced 472 100 tonnes in 2024, up 24.8% from 378 200 tonnes in 2015 — a compound annual growth rate of 2.49% per year.
Which country produces the most sweet lupin in the EU?
Poland, with 375 700 tonnes in 2024 — 79.6% of the EU-27 total. Germany is second at 57 200 tonnes (12.1%).
How many years does the official EU aggregate lupin series cover?
Inside the 2015-2024 window the official EU-27 aggregate line has values only for 2016 (292 800 tonnes), 2017 (260 800) and 2018 (184 100); the next official point is 2025. The decade's trend has to be read from member-state sums.
How volatile is sweet lupin production?
Poland's output has a coefficient of variation of 33.6% over 2015-2024, running from a 2018 low of 122 000 tonnes to a 2024 record of 375 700 tonnes; the EU-27 member-state sum varies by 27.1%.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
