EU Soya Is Booming: What a Decade of Growth Means for Small Farms (2015-2024)

A Quarter More Soya: the EU Decade in Numbers

EU-27 soya production rose from 2 443 200 tonnes in 2015 to 3 070 900 tonnes in 2024 — a net increase of 25.7%, a compound annual growth rate of 2.57% per year. No year in the window collapsed: the coefficient of variation (CV) across the ten harvests is 6.8%.

The path was not straight. Output climbed to 2 912 100 tonnes by 2018, eased to 2 506 300 tonnes in 2022, recovered to 2 862 200 tonnes in 2023 and reached the window high of 3 070 900 tonnes in 2024.

Area tells the same story. EU soya land went from 893 400 hectares in 2015 to 1 119 000 hectares in 2024, up 25.3%. Output and area expanded almost in lockstep, so the decade's growth came from more hectares as much as from more kilos per hectare.

Where Soya Grows: the 2024 Producer Map

Italy is the EU's soya heartland: 1 125 600 tonnes in 2024, or 36.7% of EU-27 output. France follows with 398 500 tonnes (13.0%) and Romania with 316 800 tonnes (10.3%). Together the top three account for 60.0% of the harvest.

Below the podium the field is crowded. Hungary grew 258 900 tonnes (8.4%), Croatia 255 100 tonnes (8.3%) and Austria 249 100 tonnes (8.1%) — three countries separated by less than 10 000 tonnes of output, all clustered near the 8% share mark.

The 2015 shares read differently: Italy held 47.6%, France 13.8%, Romania 11.4%, Croatia 8.0%, Hungary 6.0% and Austria 5.6%. The same six countries, a visibly different balance.

The Shift Under the Surface: Italy Flat, Austria Booming

The headline number hides a rotation. Italy's output slipped 3.2% over the decade, from 1 162 700 tonnes in 2015 to 1 125 600 tonnes in 2024 — a compound rate of −0.36% a year — even as its soya area rose from 309 000 to 336 700 hectares.

Austria moved the other way, adding 80.8% (137 800 to 249 100 tonnes) for a CAGR of +6.80% a year, the fastest expansion of any large EU grower in this window. France added 18.3% (336 800 to 398 500 tonnes), Croatia 29.9% (196 400 to 255 100 tonnes) and Romania 14.2% (277 300 to 316 800 tonnes).

Because growth was spread beyond Italy, the Italian share of EU output fell from 47.6% in 2015 to 36.7% in 2024 — a drop of roughly eleven percentage points. Austria's share rose from 5.6% to 8.1% over the same period.

Yield Reality Check: Italy's Land Does More

Italy's 3.34 tonnes per hectare is the highest yield among the EU's large soya growers in 2024. Austria follows at 2.78 t/ha, France at 2.61 t/ha and Croatia at 2.48 t/ha — a spread of 0.86 t/ha between the top and the bottom of that group.

The yield gap explains why Italy can lose share without losing acres. Italian output fell 3.2% while its soya area rose from 309 000 to 336 700 hectares: more land produced slightly less harvest over the decade.

Italy's harvests are also the steadiest of the group, with a CV of 7.9% over 2015-2024 — just above the EU-27 aggregate's 6.8% — while Austria's 19.7% and Romania's 20.9% show how much more variable a single smaller national harvest can be.

Entry Considerations: What the Data Says to Smaller Growers

The verified picture offers three data facts for anyone weighing soya. First, the EU supply series grows steadily: +25.7% over ten years, at a compound rate of 2.57% a year, with an aggregate CV of only 6.8%.

Second, the expansion is happening on land, not only in yield. EU soya area rose 25.3% to 1 119 000 hectares, so the growth is not confined to a handful of narrow districts where the crop already performed best.

Third, country-level risk varies widely: Italy's CV is 7.9%, Austria's 19.7% and Romania's 20.9%. A grower entering on a national base smaller than the big three faces year-to-year swings of roughly two and a half times the Italian one — the clearest caution in the data for a small operation.

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