10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
The EU plums market produced a combined 15 084.7 thousand tonnes over the 2016–2025 decade, with annual output swinging from a low of 1 289.5 thousand tonnes in 2017 to a peak of 1 763.7 thousand tonnes in 2018. Production closed the decade at 1 335.4 thousand tonnes in 2025, a net decline of 127.4 thousand tonnes (−8.7%) from the 2016 baseline of 1 462.8 thousand tonnes. The EU-wide trajectory reflects a sector with considerable year-on-year variability, shaped by the divergent fortunes of its top-producing nations.
Romania maintained the largest production footprint throughout the decade. Starting at 502.2 thousand tonnes in 2016 and closing at 565.9 thousand tonnes in 2025, its 1.34% CAGR translated into a net gain of 63.7 thousand tonnes despite a volatile mid-decade surge that saw output spike to 830.1 thousand tonnes in 2018 — the single highest annual reading by any country in the series. Romania's trajectory is classified as Ascending.
Germany registered the fastest relative growth among the top eight producers. Its output climbed from 42.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 57.0 thousand tonnes in 2025, a 3.43% CAGR and a net gain of 14.9 thousand tonnes (+35.4%). Germany is the only country besides Romania with an Ascending trajectory, though from a much smaller base.
Poland followed a neutral path with a 0.82% CAGR and a net gain of 8.4 thousand tonnes, earning a Stable classification. Output ranged from a low of 58.4 thousand tonnes in 2017 to a high of 133.2 thousand tonnes in 2022, demonstrating significant season-to-season volatility despite an overall flat trend.
The remaining five top producers posted declining trajectories. France saw output contract from 216.4 thousand tonnes to 144.6 thousand tonnes, a 4.38% annualised decline (net loss of 71.8 thousand tonnes, −33.2%). The French series carries a break-in-series flag (b) on the 2020 value. Italy lost 50.1 thousand tonnes over the decade (−2.82% CAGR), with a pronounced dip to 137.8 thousand tonnes in 2021. Spain shed 39.2 thousand tonnes (−2.48% CAGR). Hungary declined 41.9% from 47.6 thousand tonnes to 27.6 thousand tonnes (−5.86% CAGR). Bulgaria experienced the steepest contraction: after a sustained increase through 2024 to 60.8 thousand tonnes, output collapsed to just 15.4 thousand tonnes in 2025, resulting in a −12.02% CAGR and a net loss of 33.3 thousand tonnes (−68.4%). The 2016 Bulgarian value carries a definition-differs flag (d).
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, d = definition differs.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 502.2 | 434.4 | 830.1 | 692.7 | 757.9 | 807.2 | 665.7 | 645.1 | 602.6 | 565.9 | +1.34% | +63.7 | Ascending |
| IT | 220.7 | 207.0 | 197.7 | 215.0 | 156.3 | 137.8 | 187.3 | 161.0 | 170.2 | 170.6 | −2.82% | −50.1 | Declining |
| FR | 216.4 | 211.0 | 175.4 | 205.1 | 225.9b | 106.3 | 100.0 | 207.6 | 170.5 | 144.6 | −4.38% | −71.8 | Declining |
| ES | 193.6 | 172.3 | 153.0 | 179.8 | 153.6 | 179.3 | 157.4 | 162.9 | 135.8 | 154.4 | −2.48% | −39.2 | Declining |
| PL | 109.5 | 58.4 | 121.1 | 95.0 | 117.4 | 117.4 | 133.2 | 127.1 | 95.2 | 117.9 | +0.82% | +8.4 | Stable |
| BG | 48.6d | 49.2 | 56.4 | 56.2 | 60.0 | 65.1 | 56.6 | 57.7 | 60.8 | 15.4 | −12.02% | −33.3 | Declining |
| DE | 42.1 | 26.6 | 70.1 | 52.1 | 51.3 | 44.5 | 51.4 | 49.6 | 49.3 | 57.0 | +3.43% | +14.9 | Ascending |
| HU | 47.6 | 43.3 | 46.7 | 45.2 | 27.0 | 33.2 | 35.0 | 37.4 | 35.9 | 27.6 | −5.86% | −19.9 | Declining |
| EU-27 | 1462.8 | 1289.5 | 1763.7 | 1625.0 | 1639.7 | 1571.8 | 1472.8 | 1517.3 | 1406.7 | 1335.4 | −1.01% | −127.4 | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — how reliably a buyer can expect consistent volumes from a given producer — is measured through the coefficient of variation (CV%), which normalises year-to-year volatility against each country's mean output. A lower CV% indicates more predictable harvests. The top producer by volume, Romania, does not rank as the most stable supplier; that distinction belongs to Spain.
Spain delivered the most consistent output across the decade with a CV% of just 9.81% and a maximum single-year drawdown of −16.69%, earning a stability rank of 1. A buyer sourcing from Spain would have experienced relatively narrow output swings around a mean of 164.2 thousand tonnes per year, with six of ten years falling below the country's mean — suggesting mild but persistent softening rather than sharp shocks.
Italy ranks second in stability (CV 14.32%, max drawdown −27.31%). Romania ranks third, with a CV of 18.74% driven by the dramatic 2018 spike and subsequent reversion. At the volatile end of the spectrum, France recorded a CV of 24.63% and a maximum drawdown of −52.95%, the result of output collapsing from 225.9 thousand tonnes in 2020 to just 100.0 thousand tonnes in 2022 before a partial recovery to 207.6 thousand tonnes in 2023. Bulgaria finishes last in stability (CV 25.24%, max drawdown −74.74%), driven overwhelmingly by the 2025 collapse. Hungary (CV 18.88%), Poland (CV 18.83%), and Germany (CV 21.24%) occupy the middle ranks.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 164.2 | 9.81% | −16.69% | 6 | 1 |
| IT | 182.4 | 14.32% | −27.31% | 5 | 2 |
| RO | 650.4 | 18.74% | −17.52% | 5 | 3 |
| PL | 109.2 | 18.83% | −46.67% | 3 | 4 |
| HU | 37.9 | 18.88% | −40.24% | 6 | 5 |
| DE | 49.4 | 21.24% | −36.78% | 4 | 6 |
| FR | 176.3 | 24.63% | −52.95% | 5 | 7 |
| BG | 52.6 | 25.24% | −74.74% | 3 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
Total EU harvested area for plums remained broadly stable over the decade, starting at 152.8 thousand hectares in 2016 and ending at 156.7 thousand hectares in 2025, a net expansion of 3.9 thousand hectares (+2.6%). However, the stability of the EU-wide figure masks significant internal reallocation of orchard land across member states.
Bulgaria led the land expansion story: its plum area grew from 6.7 thousand hectares in 2016 to 11.3 thousand hectares in 2025, an annualised growth rate of 5.92% and a net gain of 4.5 thousand hectares (+67.8%). Poland expanded its plum area at a 2.89% annualised rate, adding 3.9 thousand hectares (+29.2%), driven largely by a step-change increase from 13.6 thousand hectares in 2019 to 18.7 thousand hectares in 2020. Germany added 0.4 thousand hectares (1.03% annual growth), while France expanded modestly at 0.56% annually.
On the contracting side, Spain reduced its plum hectarage from 15.3 thousand hectares to 11.0 thousand hectares, a loss of 4.3 thousand hectares (−28.0%) at an annualised rate of −3.59%. Hungary contracted at −1.70% annually, shedding 1.1 thousand hectares. Romania's area was effectively stable (+0.29% annual growth), and Italy's area was similarly flat (−0.28%).
Comparing production CAGRs against area growth rates reveals divergent efficiency pathways. Romania grew production at 1.34% on stable area — a pure intensification gain. Germany achieved 3.43% production growth on just 1.03% area expansion, also indicating intensification. Bulgaria's area expansion (5.92%) vastly outpaced its production trend (−12.02%), signalling severe yield disruption rather than genuine extensification. Spain's production declined at −2.48% on a −3.59% area contraction, suggesting roughly proportionate acreage reduction without efficiency gains.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, d = definition differs.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RO | 65.1 | 66.7 | 65.9 | 65.6 | 67.0 | 66.7 | 66.7 | 67.7 | 66.8 | 66.8 | +1.7 | +0.29% | Stable |
| IT | 11.6 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 11.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 | −0.3 | −0.28% | Stable |
| FR | 14.8 | 15.1 | 15.0 | 14.8 | 15.7b | 15.7 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 15.6 | +0.8 | +0.56% | Expanding |
| ES | 15.3 | 15.2 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 12.8 | 12.4 | 12.1 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 11.0 | −4.3 | −3.59% | Contracting |
| PL | 13.4 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 13.6 | 18.7 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.9 | 17.6 | 17.3 | +3.9 | +2.89% | Expanding |
| BG | 6.7d | 6.8 | 7.4 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 11.3 | +4.5 | +5.92% | Expanding |
| DE | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | +0.4 | +1.03% | Expanding |
| HU | 8.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | −1.1 | −1.70% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | 152.8 | 153.9 | 153.4 | 152.8 | 158.8 | 156.4 | 155.5 | 156.0 | 155.1 | 156.7 | +3.9 | +0.28% | Stable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which country experienced the fastest growth in EU plums production?
Germany posted the highest CAGR at 3.43%, growing from 42.1 thousand tonnes to 57.0 thousand tonnes between 2016 and 2025. However, in absolute terms, Romania added the most additional production over the decade with a net gain of 63.7 thousand tonnes.
Which country is the most stable supplier of plums in the EU?
Spain is the most reliable supplier with a coefficient of variation of just 9.81% and a maximum single-year drawdown of only −16.69%, meaning year-to-year output swings were the narrowest among all major EU plum producers.
Where is farmland dedicated to plums expanding or shrinking fastest?
Bulgaria is expanding plum hectarage fastest at a 5.92% annualised rate (from 6.7 thousand ha to 11.3 thousand ha). Spain is contracting fastest at −3.59% annually, shrinking from 15.3 thousand ha to 11.0 thousand ha.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
