10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Across the EU-27, total pear production fell from 2.32 million tonnes in 2016 to 1.97 million tonnes in 2025 — a net loss of about 351 thousand tonnes (-15.2%, equivalent to a -1.81% CAGR). The decade high came in 2018 at 2.59 million tonnes, and the decade low in 2023 at 1.82 million tonnes, underscoring a broadly contracting bloc-wide harvest.
Italy, the largest cumulative producer of the decade, was also its most dramatic casualty. Output slid from 701.9 thousand tonnes in 2016 to just 358.3 thousand tonnes in 2025 (a -7.2% CAGR, -343.6 thousand tonnes net, -49.0%), swinging between a 2017 peak of 772.6 thousand tonnes and a 2023 floor of 255.7 thousand tonnes. That collapse cost Italy its perennial top ranking: by 2025 both Belgium and the Netherlands had drawn level with or ahead of it.
Belgium was the clearest rising producer, classified as Ascending (a 2.24% CAGR, +71.0 thousand tonnes net, +22.1%), and finished 2025 at 392.5 thousand tonnes — the single highest national output that year. France also rose (a 2.19% CAGR, +27.9 thousand tonnes net, +21.6%), despite a sharp 2021 trough of 69.1 thousand tonnes and a 2020 value carrying a break-in-series flag. Greece rounded out the risers (a 1.67% CAGR, +10.6 thousand tonnes net), though all its figures are estimated.
The Netherlands held broadly flat around 360 thousand tonnes (a -0.48% CAGR, Stable), and Poland was similarly steady (a -0.38% CAGR, Stable). Among the fallers, Spain was the most notable major decliner (a -3.16% CAGR, -87.8 thousand tonnes net, -25.1%), while Portugal drifted lower (a -1.06% CAGR, -12.6 thousand tonnes net); Portugal's 2025 value is provisional, as flagged below.
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 701.9 | 772.6 | 752.6 | 429.3 | 619.5 | 273.4 | 519.2 | 255.7 | 436.6 | 358.3 | -7.2% | -343.6 | Declining |
| Netherlands | 373.8 | 330.0 | 402.2 | 373.0 | 400.0 | 340.0 | 351.0 | 354.0 | 323.0 | 358.0 | -0.48% | -15.8 | Stable |
| Belgium | 321.6 | 310.2 | 368.8 | 332.4 | 392.6 | 355.7 | 345.9 | 381.3 | 268.8 | 392.5 | +2.24% | +71.0 | Ascending |
| Spain | 349.2 | 361.0 | 332.3 | 330.7 | 323.7 | 316.3 | 248.3 | 288.0 | 222.0 | 261.5 | -3.16% | -87.8 | Declining |
| Portugal | 137.8 | 202.3 | 161.3 | 198.5 | 131.0 | 225.4 | 132.3 | 118.3 | 125.2 | 125.2p | -1.06% | -12.6 | Declining |
| France | 129.3 | 130.2 | 129.5 | 119.8 | 150.7b | 69.1 | 142.6 | 128.2 | 151.9 | 157.1 | +2.19% | +27.9 | Ascending |
| Greece | 66.2e | 73.2e | 77.0e | 75.8e | 81.3e | 77.5e | 78.7e | 62.9e | 73.6e | 76.8e | +1.67% | +10.6 | Ascending |
| Poland | 81.5 | 55.1 | 90.9 | 67.6 | 61.0 | 68.6 | 80.6 | 79.0 | 74.2 | 78.7 | -0.38% | -2.8 | Stable |
| EU-27 | 2318.7 | 2394.6 | 2586.9 | 2098.0 | 2368.1 | 1904.7 | 2062.1 | 1821.6 | 1852.1 | 1967.3 | -1.81% | -351.4 | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Volume leadership and supply reliability are rarely held by the same country. Ranking the top eight producers by coefficient of variation (CV) — where a lower CV means steadier year-to-year output — reveals that the biggest cumulative producer is in fact the least dependable.
The Netherlands is the single most stable supplier of the decade (CV 7.1%, max single-year drawdown of just -15.0%), pairing the second-largest cumulative volume with top-tier reliability. Greece follows on reliability (CV 7.3%, drawdown -20.2%), though its modest output makes it a supplementary source. Belgium completes the dependable tier (CV 10.9%), combining rising volume with moderate stability.
The mid-range includes Poland (CV 13.7%), Spain (CV 14.5%), and France (CV 18.1%). France's numbers hide the deepest single-year shock among the reliable-volume producers — a -54.2% drawdown driven by its 2021 collapse. At the volatile end sit Portugal (CV 23.7%, drawdown -41.3%) and Italy (CV 35.6%, drawdown -55.9%). Italy's extreme CV reflects its structural production decline, making the former market leader the riskiest single-source bet in the cohort.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 360.5 | 7.1% | -15.0% | 6 | 1 |
| Greece | 74.3 | 7.3% | -20.2% | 4 | 2 |
| Belgium | 347.0 | 10.9% | -29.5% | 5 | 3 |
| Poland | 73.7 | 13.7% | -32.3% | 4 | 4 |
| Spain | 303.3 | 14.5% | -22.9% | 4 | 5 |
| France | 130.8 | 18.1% | -54.2% | 6 | 6 |
| Portugal | 155.7 | 23.7% | -41.3% | 6 | 7 |
| Italy | 511.9 | 35.6% | -55.9% | 5 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
The land dedicated to pears tells a story of steady contraction. EU-27 harvested pear area fell from 115.1 thousand hectares in 2016 to 94.3 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net loss of about 20.8 thousand hectares (-18.1%, a -2.19% CAGR). Because production fell slightly less than area over the same period, the implied EU-27 yield edged up from roughly 20.1 t/ha in 2016 to 20.9 t/ha in 2025, a modest efficiency gain against a shrinking orchard footprint.
Italy cut the most acreage in both absolute and relative terms, shedding 12.7 thousand hectares (-39.5%, a -5.42% annualized rate). Because Italian output fell even faster (-49.0%) than its area, the country's implied yield actually declined, compounding its production losses. Spain contracted next-most in absolute terms (-6.8 thousand hectares, -30.0%, -3.89%/yr), followed by Poland (-1.5 thousand hectares, -19.9%) and Portugal (-1.8 thousand hectares, -14.7%). Greece held its area essentially flat.
Only three of the top eight expanded their orchards. Belgium added 1.1 thousand hectares (+11.8%, +1.24%/yr) and France 0.9 thousand hectares (+16.6%, +1.72%/yr) — the same two countries that posted the strongest production CAGRs, indicating growth driven by both extensification and firm demand. The Netherlands added 0.6 thousand hectares (+6.0%) while keeping output flat, consistent with its highly stable, mature orchard base.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 32.3 | 31.7 | 31.3 | 28.7 | 26.6 | 26.8 | 24.5 | 23.0 | 20.6 | 19.6 | -12.7 | -5.42% | Contracting |
| Netherlands | 9.4 | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 10.0 | +0.6 | +0.65% | Expanding |
| Belgium | 9.7 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 10.8 | +1.1 | +1.24% | Expanding |
| Spain | 22.6 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 19.2 | 18.7 | 18.5 | 17.3 | 16.4 | 16.1 | 15.8 | -6.8 | -3.89% | Contracting |
| Portugal | 12.0 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.2 | 10.8 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 10.2p | -1.8 | -1.75% | Contracting |
| France | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.9b | 5.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | +0.9 | +1.72% | Expanding |
| Greece | 4.1e | 4.1e | 4.4e | 4.3e | 5.4e | 4.4e | 4.3e | 4.1e | 4.0e | 4.0e | -0.1 | -0.16% | Stable |
| Poland | 7.5 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.0 | -1.5 | -2.43% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | 115.1 | 113.8 | 113.5 | 109.3 | 106.8 | 105.4 | 101.3 | 98.5 | 95.8 | 94.3 | -20.8 | -2.19% | Contracting |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country increased pear production the most from 2016 to 2025?
Belgium grew fastest among the top eight, with a 2.24% compound annual growth rate and a net gain of 71.0 thousand tonnes (+22.1%), finishing 2025 as the largest single national producer. France posted a similar 2.19% CAGR. At the other extreme, Italy recorded the steepest decline with a -7.2% CAGR and a net loss of 343.6 thousand tonnes (-49.0%).
Which country is the most stable pear supplier in the EU?
The Netherlands is the most stable top producer, with the lowest coefficient of variation (7.1%) and a maximum single-year drop of only -15.0%. Greece ranked second (CV 7.3%), though its output volume is far smaller.
Is EU pear farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU-27 harvested pear orchard area contracted by about 20.8 thousand hectares (-18.1%) between 2016 and 2025. Italy cut the most, reducing its area by nearly 40%, while Belgium, France, and the Netherlands were the only major growers to expand.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
