10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
EU-27 nectarine output lacks complete 2016–2020 data, but from 2021 to 2025 the bloc total rose from 907.2 thousand tonnes to 1,194.8 thousand tonnes. Among the eight largest producers, only two — Greece and France — posted a positive growth trajectory across the full decade. The remaining six countries all saw production contract, in some cases precipitously.
Spain ended the decade as the EU's largest nectarine producer, outputting 566.0 thousand tonnes in 2025 and holding its position with a stable trajectory (a 0.97% CAGR, +47.2 thousand tonnes net). Its decade peak was 718.5 thousand tonnes in 2017, and its low was 312.5 thousand tonnes in 2022 — a 56.5% swing that reflects extreme year-to-year volatility despite an overall flat trend. Italy, the second-largest producer, declined from 485.2 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 345.0 thousand tonnes in 2025 (a -3.72% CAGR, -140.2 thousand tonnes net), shedding nearly 29% of its output across the ten years.
Greece recorded the largest absolute gain among the major producers, rising from 143.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 163.6 thousand tonnes in 2025 (a 1.50% CAGR, +20.5 thousand tonnes net). All Greek figures carry an estimated (e) flag. France posted a similar trajectory, climbing from 98.9 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 110.6 thousand tonnes in 2025 (a 1.25% CAGR, +11.7 thousand tonnes net), with its 2020 value carrying a break-in-series (b) flag.
At the smaller end of the scale, declines were often dramatic. Portugal fell by 17.0% net (a -2.05% CAGR), Croatia contracted by half (-50.7%, a -7.55% CAGR), and Hungary shed nearly 70% of its output (-69.4%, a -12.33% CAGR). Bulgaria recorded the worst performance in the cohort, collapsing from 1.0 thousand tonnes in 2016 to virtually zero in 2025 (-97.1%, a -32.49% CAGR), with its 2016 value carrying a definitional (d) flag. Portugal's 2025 value is estimated (e).
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 518.8 | 718.5 | 547.1 | 605.1 | 481.2 | 449.2 | 312.5 | 538.7 | 544.2 | 566.0 | +0.97% | +47.2 | Stable |
| Italy | 485.2 | 464.3 | 397.2 | 415.1 | 276.2 | 278.6 | 379.1 | 309.6 | 358.9 | 345.0 | -3.72% | -140.2 | Declining |
| Greece | 143.1e | 153.7e | 153.1e | 152.0e | 136.1e | 80.5e | 142.8e | 120.9e | 159.6e | 163.6e | +1.50% | +20.5 | Ascending |
| France | 98.9 | 105.0 | 86.3 | 96.8 | 111.6b | 85.2 | 113.9 | 115.1 | 119.4 | 110.6 | +1.25% | +11.7 | Ascending |
| Portugal | 7.8 | 10.0 | 10.2 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 6.4e | -2.05% | -1.3 | Declining |
| Croatia | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -7.55% | -0.7 | Declining |
| Hungary | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | -12.33% | -0.9 | Declining |
| Bulgaria | 1.0d | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -32.49% | -1.0 | Declining |
| EU-27 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 907.2 | 960.7 | 1097.1 | 1195.2 | 1194.8 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Volume leadership and supply reliability diverge sharply for EU nectarines. Ranking the top eight producers by coefficient of variation (CV) — where a lower CV means steadier year-to-year output — reveals that mid-sized producers are typically more dependable than the largest.
France is the single most stable nectarine supplier of the decade (CV 11.0%, max single-year drop of -23.7%), topping the stability table despite ranking only fourth by production volume. Portugal follows closely (CV 14.7%, max drawdown -25.0%), offering consistent small-volume supply. Greece ranks third (CV 16.5% but with a -40.9% max drawdown — the worst single-year shock among the top five), though its all-estimated (e) data introduces extra uncertainty.
Spain, the largest producer by volume, ranks only fifth for stability (CV 18.9%, max drawdown -30.4%). A buyer relying solely on Spanish nectarines would have absorbed a single-year drop of just over 30%, though the long-term trend held flat. Italy ranks fourth (CV 18.4%), carrying a meaningful -33.5% max drawdown. At the volatile end, Hungary (CV 27.5%, max drawdown -71.5%) and Bulgaria (CV 64.7%, max drawdown -85.0%) are the least dependable, their extreme CV values reflecting the structural production collapses documented in the trajectory section.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 104.3 | 11.0% | -23.7% | 4 | 1 |
| Portugal | 8.8 | 14.7% | -25.0% | 6 | 2 |
| Greece | 140.5 | 16.5% | -40.9% | 3 | 3 |
| Italy | 370.9 | 18.4% | -33.5% | 5 | 4 |
| Spain | 528.1 | 18.9% | -30.4% | 4 | 5 |
| Croatia | 1.2 | 19.6% | -42.4% | 4 | 6 |
| Hungary | 1.0 | 27.5% | -71.5% | 4 | 7 |
| Bulgaria | 0.7 | 64.7% | -85.0% | 5 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
EU-27 harvested nectarine area aggregates are available only from 2021, declining from 58.5 thousand hectares to 54.9 thousand hectares in 2025. Per-country data stretching back to 2016 reveals a near-universal contraction: all eight top producers except Greece and France reduced their nectarine acreage.
Spain, the bloc's largest nectarine grower by both output and area, cut the most land in absolute terms (-8.3 thousand hectares, -25.4%, a -3.21% annualised rate). Italy shed 5.9 thousand hectares (-26.8%, -3.41%/yr), while Croatia recorded the fastest proportional retreat among the quantifiable producers (-50.0%, -7.41%/yr). Bulgaria's nectarine land virtually disappeared by 2025 (-87.5%, -20.63%/yr), mirroring its production collapse.
France was the sole expanding producer, adding 0.5 thousand hectares (+10.3%, +1.09%/yr), though its 2020 value carries a break-in-series (b) flag. Greece held stable (+0.3 thousand hectares, +4.1%, +0.45%/yr), the only other country avoiding clear contraction. Portugal also held roughly stable (-0.0 thousand hectares, -3.2%, -0.36%/yr), with its 2025 value estimated (e). Comparing production trajectory against area trajectory shows that in Spain, output held up much better than acreage (production CAGR +0.97% vs. area growth rate -3.21%), pointing to yield gains. Italy showed a somewhat closer alignment, with production and area both declining at similar rates.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 32.5 | 32.1 | 30.4 | 27.0 | 25.3 | 25.9 | 24.7 | 24.6 | 24.0 | 24.2 | -8.3 | -3.21% | Contracting |
| Italy | 22.0 | 21.5 | 19.9 | 18.5 | 17.6 | 17.1 | 17.2 | 16.4 | 16.6 | 16.1 | -5.9 | -3.41% | Contracting |
| Greece | 7.6e | 7.7e | 7.9e | 7.8e | 12.5e | 8.1e | 8.3e | 8.2e | 8.1e | 7.9e | +0.3 | +0.45% | Stable |
| France | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 5.7b | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.0 | +0.5 | +1.09% | Expanding |
| Portugal | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9e | -0.0 | -0.36% | Stable |
| Croatia | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -7.41% | Contracting |
| Hungary | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -2.54% | Contracting |
| Bulgaria | 0.2d | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -20.63% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 58.5 | 57.3 | 56.4 | 55.7 | 54.9 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew nectarine production fastest from 2016 to 2025?
Greece (+1.50% CAGR, +20.5 thousand tonnes net) and France (+1.25% CAGR, +11.7 thousand tonnes net) were the only top-eight producers to grow output. Italy declined the fastest among major producers (-3.72% CAGR, -28.9% net), while Bulgaria's production all but vanished (-97.1%, a -32.49% CAGR).
Which country is the most stable nectarine supplier in the EU?
France ranks first for supply stability among the top eight, with the lowest coefficient of variation (11.0%) and a maximum single-year drawdown of -23.7%. Spain, the largest producer by volume, ranks only fifth for stability (CV 18.9%).
Is EU nectarine farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU-27 nectarine harvested area contracted from 58.5 thousand hectares in 2021 to 54.9 thousand hectares in 2025. Among the top eight individual producers with full-decade data, six out of eight reduced acreage. France was the only clear expander (+10.3%, +1.09%/yr).
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
