10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Italy remains the EU’s dominant kiwifruit producer, contributing well over half of total EU output in every year of the decade. However, Italian production declined marginally from 523.6 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 512.0 thousand tonnes in 2025, a net loss of 11.6 thousand tonnes at a CAGR of −0.25%. Italy’s trajectory was punctuated by sharp volatility — its output crashed to 391.1 thousand tonnes in 2023, a single-year drop of over 25% from the prior year, before partially recovering to 463.9 thousand tonnes in 2024 and 512.0 thousand tonnes in 2025.
Greece is the decade’s outstanding growth story. Greek kiwifruit production rose from 221.6 thousand tonnes to 310.8 thousand tonnes, adding 89.2 thousand tonnes at a CAGR of 3.83%. All Greek values in this dataset carry an estimated (e) flag, indicating provisional or imputed data, but the directional trend is unequivocally ascending. Greece overtook the combined output of all other non-Italian EU producers by the end of the decade.
Portugal and Spain, while smaller in absolute terms, both posted strong growth trajectories. Portuguese output climbed from 23.7 thousand tonnes to 34.4 thousand tonnes (CAGR 4.25%), while Spanish production rose from 21.4 to 30.6 thousand tonnes (CAGR 4.04%). Both countries exhibited mid-decade peaks, with Portugal reaching 55.5 thousand tonnes in 2021 and Spain peaking at 30.6 thousand tonnes in 2025. France is the only major producer to have contracted meaningfully, declining from 65.2 thousand tonnes to 54.8 thousand tonnes (CAGR −1.92%). Slovenia, Bulgaria, and Cyprus produce marginal volumes that are highly variable year to year.
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional, n = nil/no data.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 523.6 | 571.0 | 562.2 | 524.5 | 521.5 | 416.1 | 523.1 | 391.1 | 463.9 | 512.0 | −0.25% | −11.6 | Stable |
| Greece | 221.6e | 274.6e | 265.3e | 285.9e | 307.4e | 319.3e | 320.3e | 317.1e | 342.3e | 310.8e | +3.83% | +89.2 | Ascending |
| France | 65.2 | 57.0 | 53.6 | 55.8 | 50.8b | 46.0 | 47.1 | 49.8 | 50.8 | 54.8 | −1.92% | −10.4 | Declining |
| Portugal | 23.7 | 35.4 | 34.1 | 44.1 | 45.8 | 55.5 | 52.9 | 48.7 | 31.3 | 34.4p | +4.25% | +10.7 | Ascending |
| Spain | 21.4 | 21.5 | 23.8 | 24.5 | 27.4 | 28.4 | 27.4 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 30.6 | +4.04% | +9.2 | Ascending |
| Slovenia | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | −5.28% | −0.2 | Declining |
| Cyprus | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1p | 0.1p | +0.89% | 0.0 | Stable |
| Bulgaria | 0.0 | 0.0n | 0.0n | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.0n | 0.0n | +69.90% | 0.0 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 856.0 | 959.6 | 939.4 | 935.3 | 953.3 | 865.5 | 971.1 | 836.3 | 918.3 | 943.0 | +1.08% | +87.0 | Ascending |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV%) — reveals that the EU’s kiwifruit production is dominated by two producers with moderate-to-good stability, while smaller and marginal producers exhibit extreme volatility.
Italy, the bloc’s dominant producer averaging 500.9 thousand tonnes annually, ranks third in stability with a CV of 11.19% and a maximum single-year drawdown of 25.24% — the 2022-to-2023 collapse from 523.1 to 391.1 thousand tonnes. This places Italy in the “moderately stable” category (CV 10–20%). Greece, the second-largest producer, ranks close behind with a CV of 11.25% and a notably smaller max drawdown of 9.22%, suggesting that while its absolute variation is similar to Italy’s, its downside risk is considerably lower.
France ranks second in stability with a CV of 9.94% (very stable), a remarkable finding given its declining production trajectory. France’s output, though shrinking, has been predictable. Cyprus ranks first on paper with a CV of 9.65%, but this reflects its negligible production volume (mean 0.12 thousand tonnes) rather than meaningful supply resilience. Spain (CV 11.98%) and Portugal (CV 24.10%) sit at opposite ends of the stability spectrum. Portugal’s volatility is driven by a sharp spike to 55.5 thousand tonnes in 2021 and a subsequent collapse to 31.3 thousand tonnes in 2024 — a max drawdown of 35.67%, the worst among meaningful producers.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus | 0.12 | 9.65% | 13.33% | 6 | 1 |
| France | 53.08 | 9.94% | 12.57% | 5 | 2 |
| Italy | 500.91 | 11.19% | 25.24% | 3 | 3 |
| Greece | 296.45 | 11.25% | 9.22% | 4 | 4 |
| Spain | 26.35 | 11.98% | 3.46% | 4 | 5 |
| Portugal | 40.59 | 24.10% | 35.67% | 5 | 6 |
| Slovenia | 0.23 | 60.09% | 73.68% | 5 | 7 |
| Bulgaria | 0.05 | 148.19% | 100.00% | 7 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
EU-27 harvested area for kiwis expanded from 43.8 thousand hectares in 2016 to 46.5 thousand hectares in 2025, a net gain of 2.7 thousand hectares (6.2%) at an annualized growth rate of 0.67%. But this modest EU-level increase masks a dramatic reallocation of orchard land between member states.
Greece is the engine of EU kiwifruit land expansion. Greek harvested area grew from 8.9 thousand hectares to 13.9 thousand hectares — a 55.5% increase at an annualized rate of 5.03%. This area expansion outpaces Greece’s production CAGR of 3.83%, suggesting that yield improvements have not kept pace with hectarage growth. Italy’s land trend runs opposite to Greece’s. Italian harvested area contracted from 26.5 thousand hectares to 23.3 thousand hectares, a net loss of 3.2 thousand hectares (−12.0%) at an annualized rate of −1.41%. The combination of declining area (−1.41% annually) and flat-to-slightly-declining production (−0.25% CAGR) suggests Italian orchards are becoming marginally more productive per hectare.
Portugal expanded kiwifruit area from 2.6 to 3.6 thousand hectares (38.5% increase, 3.68% annualized), closely tracking its production growth. France, despite declining production, recorded a marginal area increase from 3.8 to 4.1 thousand hectares, indicating that lower output is not being driven by orchard removal but rather by falling yields. Spain’s area contracted from 1.9 to 1.5 thousand hectares (−21.1%), even as its production grew 42.8% — the sharpest divergence between area and output trends in the dataset, pointing to significant intensification and yield improvements in Spanish orchards.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional, n = nil/no data.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 26.5 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 25.1 | 24.9 | 24.9 | 24.0 | 23.9 | 23.1 | 23.3 | −3.2 | −1.41% | Contracting |
| Greece | 8.9e | 9.2e | 9.6e | 10.3e | 11.1e | 12.6e | 13.6e | 14.0e | 14.7e | 13.9e | +5.0 | +5.03% | Expanding |
| France | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9b | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | +0.3 | +0.90% | Expanding |
| Portugal | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6p | +1.0 | +3.68% | Expanding |
| Spain | 1.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | −0.4 | −2.59% | Contracting |
| Slovenia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Cyprus | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0p | 0.0p | 0.0 | 0.00% | Stable |
| Bulgaria | 0.0 | 0.0n | 0.0n | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0n | 0.0n | 0.0 | +49.53% | Expanding |
| EU-27 | 43.8 | 43.8 | 44.2 | 44.0 | 44.8 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.9 | 47.0 | 46.5 | +2.7 | +0.67% | Expanding |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew kiwifruit production fastest over the decade?
Greece added 89.2 thousand tonnes of production at a 3.83% CAGR, the largest absolute increase of any member state. Portugal (4.25% CAGR) and Spain (4.04% CAGR) grew faster in percentage terms but from much smaller bases.
Which country is the most stable kiwifruit supplier in the EU?
France ranks second in stability with a coefficient of variation of just 9.94% and a max single-year drawdown of 12.57%, making it the most reliable supplier among producers of meaningful scale. Italy, the dominant producer, ranks third with moderate stability (CV 11.19%) but carries a much larger downside risk — a max drawdown of 25.24%.
Where is EU kiwifruit farmland expanding or shrinking?
Greece is the primary expansion story, adding 5.0 thousand hectares of kiwifruit area (55.5% growth) over the decade. Italy is contracting, shedding 3.2 thousand hectares (−12.0%). These two countries together account for essentially all of the EU’s net land reallocation in this crop.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
