10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Across the EU-27, total grapes production declined from 25.5 million tonnes in 2016 to 21.9 million tonnes in 2025 — a net loss of about 3.6 million tonnes (-14.2%), equivalent to a -1.70% CAGR. The decade high came in 2018 at 27.6 million tonnes, and the decade low was the closing 2025 harvest.
Italy retained its position as the EU's largest grapes producer, averaging 7.9 million tonnes and finishing the decade at 7.7 million tonnes (a -0.79% CAGR, -6.9%). Italy's trajectory was classified as Stable, with annual output ranging from 6.7 million tonnes in 2023 to 8.5 million tonnes in 2018. Spain, the second-largest producer, declined over the decade (a -2.58% CAGR, -20.9%), from a high of 7.0 million tonnes in 2018 to a low of 4.8 million tonnes in 2023 and 2025. Spain's 2025 value carries a provisional flag. France, the third-largest producer, also declined (a -2.63% CAGR, -21.3%), with a decade-high of 6.3 million tonnes in 2018 and a decade-low of 4.7 million tonnes in 2024–2025. France's 2020 value carries a break-in-series flag.
The clearest rising star was Austria, which expanded output significantly over the decade (a 3.06% CAGR, +31.2%), lifting production from 260.3 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 341.5 thousand tonnes in 2025. Romania also grew (a 1.09% CAGR, +10.3%), rising from 733.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 808.5 thousand tonnes in 2025, though with significant year-to-year variability. In contrast, Greece (-4.18% CAGR, -31.9%) recorded the steepest proportional decline among the top producers, dropping from 1.0 million tonnes in 2016 to 699.6 thousand tonnes in 2025. All Greek values carry estimated flags. Hungary (-1.38% CAGR, -11.7%) also declined, while Portugal held essentially flat (a -0.14% CAGR, -1.2%).
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 8248.5 | 7169.8 | 8513.6 | 7900.1 | 8222.4 | 8149.4 | 8438.0 | 6668.8 | 7637.6 | 7681.2 | -0.79% | -567.3 | Stable |
| Spain | 6102.9 | 5387.4 | 6983.3 | 5745.4 | 6817.8 | 6086.9 | 5902.0 | 4822.8 | 5387.3 | 4824.6p | -2.58% | -1278.2 | Declining |
| France | 6018.1 | 5011.1 | 6267.8 | 5489.6 | 5857.9b | 5073.6 | 6199.9 | 6205.3 | 4747.4 | 4735.6 | -2.63% | -1282.5 | Declining |
| Romania | 733.1 | 1063.3 | 1140.6 | 974.0 | 932.8 | 1005.3 | 804.8 | 801.1 | 704.2 | 808.5 | +1.09% | +75.4 | Ascending |
| Portugal | 800.7 | 896.1 | 802.1 | 864.9 | 853.4 | 977.7 | 903.5 | 999.7 | 917.9 | 790.8p | -0.14% | -10.0 | Stable |
| Greece | 1027.5e | 1012.6e | 933.1e | 807.6e | 815.8e | 828.3e | 820.5e | 564.2e | 777.2e | 699.6e | -4.18% | -327.9 | Declining |
| Hungary | 476.5 | 529.6 | 533.1 | 457.2 | 435.1 | 437.8 | 414.6 | 411.0 | 378.8 | 420.6 | -1.38% | -55.9 | Declining |
| Austria | 260.3 | 331.4 | 367.1 | 309.9 | 319.8 | 328.0 | 337.0 | 310.8 | 249.4 | 341.5 | +3.06% | +81.2 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 25481.8 | 22993.5 | 27627.9 | 24220.2 | 25974.9 | 24598.8 | 25591.9 | 22443.0 | 22318.1 | 21854.2 | -1.70% | -3627.6 | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Volume leadership and supply reliability are closely aligned in the EU grapes sector. Ranking the top eight producers by coefficient of variation (CV) — where a lower CV means steadier year-to-year output — reveals that the largest producers are also among the most stable.
Italy is the single most stable supplier of the decade (CV 7.09%, max single-year drawdown of -20.97%), combining the largest volume with the lowest variability. Portugal follows in second (CV 7.82%, max drawdown -13.85%), demonstrating reliable year-to-year production despite its smaller scale. France (CV 10.65%, max drawdown -23.49%) and Hungary (CV 10.69%, max drawdown -14.22%) occupy the "moderately stable" tier, with both producers showing CVs just above the 10% threshold. Austria (CV 10.84%, max drawdown -19.74%) rounds out the stable group.
At the more volatile end, Spain (CV 12.02%), Romania (CV 15.59%), and Greece (CV 15.93%) are the least consistent among the leading producers. A buyer sourcing from Greece would have absorbed a -31.24% collapse — the harshest single-year drawdown of any top producer — while Romania's output fell -19.94% in its worst year. For comparison, the EU-27 aggregate (CV 7.4%) is smoother than every individual member state, illustrating how pooling national harvests dampens supply shocks.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 7862.94 | 7.09% | -20.97% | 4 | 1 |
| Portugal | 880.67 | 7.82% | -13.85% | 5 | 2 |
| France | 5560.64 | 10.65% | -23.49% | 5 | 3 |
| Hungary | 449.41 | 10.69% | -14.22% | 6 | 4 |
| Austria | 315.54 | 10.84% | -19.74% | 4 | 5 |
| Spain | 5806.03 | 12.02% | -18.29% | 5 | 6 |
| Romania | 896.77 | 15.59% | -19.94% | 5 | 7 |
| Greece | 828.64 | 15.93% | -31.24% | 7 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
The land dedicated to grapes across the EU-27 contracted modestly over the decade. EU-27 harvested grapes area fell from 3.14 million hectares in 2016 to 3.00 million hectares in 2025 — a net loss of about 135.8 thousand hectares (-4.3%, a -0.50% annualized rate). This places total EU grapes area in the "Stable" trend category.
Italy was the only major producer to expand its vineyard area over the period, adding 49.9 thousand hectares (+7.4%, a 0.80%/yr rate) — a notable contrast to the broader EU trend. France's area was essentially stable (-3.9%, -0.45%/yr), as was Portugal's (-4.3%, -0.49%/yr). In contrast, Greece cut the most in relative terms (-23.6%, -2.94%/yr), followed by Hungary (-16.6%, -1.99%/yr). Spain (-9.5%, -1.1%/yr), Austria (-9.0%, -1.04%/yr), and Romania (-6.9%, -0.79%/yr) all trimmed area more modestly but still at rates classified as Contracting.
Comparing production CAGR against area growth rates reveals diverging patterns across producers. Italy, the largest grower, expanded area while production slipped slightly — the only country where area and output moved in opposite directions. In France and Spain, production fell faster than area contracted, indicating declining yields per hectare. Austria and Romania, the two rising producers, combined contracting area with growing output — a clear sign of improving efficiency.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 673.8 | 670.1 | 675.8 | 697.9 | 703.9 | 702.7 | 709.9 | 713.4 | 715.8 | 723.7 | +49.9 | +0.80% | Expanding |
| Spain | 935.1 | 937.8 | 939.9 | 874.6 | 876.5 | 871.1 | 865.4 | 856.6 | 851.8 | 846.5p | -88.6 | -1.10% | Contracting |
| France | 751.7 | 750.5 | 750.6 | 755.5 | 759.6b | 757.8 | 757.5 | 753.3 | 741.3 | 722.1 | -29.6 | -0.45% | Stable |
| Romania | 174.2 | 175.3 | 172.8 | 176.3 | 165.6 | 163.6 | 159.7 | 164.2 | 161.9 | 162.1 | -12.0 | -0.79% | Contracting |
| Portugal | 179.2 | 178.9 | 179.2 | 175.7 | 175.7 | 175.6 | 175.8 | 175.8 | 173.2 | 171.5p | -7.7 | -0.49% | Stable |
| Greece | 98.1e | 101.8e | 100.3e | 101.8e | 104.2e | 89.8e | 84.7e | 79.4e | 83.6e | 75.0e | -23.1 | -2.94% | Contracting |
| Hungary | 68.1 | 67.1 | 66.1 | 64.9 | 59.6 | 59.1 | 58.0 | 57.5 | 58.4 | 56.8 | -11.3 | -1.99% | Contracting |
| Austria | 46.5 | 46.3 | 46.5 | 46.4 | 46.2 | 42.8 | 42.8 | 42.6 | 42.6 | 42.3 | -4.2 | -1.04% | Contracting |
| EU-27 | 3135.4 | 3133.3 | 3135.5 | 3092.9 | 3091.1 | 3061.9 | 3052.3 | 3042.3 | 3027.6 | 2999.6 | -135.8 | -0.50% | Stable |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country increased grapes production the most from 2016 to 2025?
Austria grew fastest, with a 3.06% compound annual growth rate and a net gain of 81.2 thousand tonnes (+31.2%), rising from 260.3 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 341.5 thousand tonnes in 2025. Romania also grew (+1.09% CAGR, +10.3%), while France and Spain recorded the steepest absolute declines among the top producers.
Which country is the most stable grapes supplier in the EU?
Italy was the most stable top producer, with the lowest coefficient of variation (7.09%) and ranking #1 in supply reliability despite also being the largest-volume producer. Portugal ranked second (CV 7.82%), combining small volume with very low year-to-year variability.
Is EU grapes farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU-27 harvested grapes area contracted marginally by about 135.8 thousand hectares (-4.3%) between 2016 and 2025, classified as a Stable trend overall. Italy was the only major producer to expand its vineyard acreage (+7.4%), while Greece (-23.6%) and Hungary (-16.6%) cut theirs the most.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
