Trayectoria de producción a 10 años: Estrellas emergentes y productores en declive

Across the EU-27, total soya production rose from 2.5 million tonnes in 2016 to 2.8 million tonnes in 2025 — a net gain of 252 thousand tonnes (+9.9%, a 1.1% CAGR). The decade low came in 2022 at 2.5 million tonnes, and the decade high was 2024 at 3.1 million tonnes, reflecting a generally upward trend punctuated by weather-driven dips.

Italy retained its position as the EU's dominant soya producer, accounting for roughly 37% of total EU output. Its production held broadly stable at around 1.1 million tonnes (a -0.22% CAGR, -21.8 thousand tonnes net). France, the second-largest producer, posted a modest rise (a 1.63% CAGR, +52.9 thousand tonnes net), with its 2020 value carrying a break-in-series flag reflecting a methodological change in French reporting.

The decade's clearest rising producers were Austria (a 6.95% CAGR, +128.3 thousand tonnes net), Germany (a 13.1% CAGR, +87.6 thousand tonnes net), and Slovakia (a 4.4% CAGR, +44.7 thousand tonnes net), all classified as Ascending. Austria's soya output grew from 154.4 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 282.7 thousand tonnes in 2025, while Germany's nearly tripled from just 43.2 thousand tonnes to 130.8 thousand tonnes — albeit from a small base.

Romania was the decade's steepest decliner, with soya output falling from 278.7 thousand tonnes in 2016 to just 174.2 thousand tonnes in 2025 (a -5.08% CAGR, -37.5% net), after peaking at 492.7 thousand tonnes in 2018. Croatia also declined notably (a -2.31% CAGR, -46.4 thousand tonnes net). Hungary and Italy were the most stable producers by trajectory, with CAGRs close to zero.

Tabla de estabilidad de suministro: Clasificación de fiabilidad

Volume leadership and supply reliability do not always align. Ranking the top eight producers by coefficient of variation (CV) — where a lower CV means steadier year-to-year output — reveals which countries offer the most dependable soya supply.

France is the single most stable supplier of the decade (CV 6.7%, a remarkably low value), ranking second by volume but first by reliability. Italy follows closely (CV 7.5%, max drawdown -12.1%), providing both high volume and strong stability — an unusual combination that makes Italy the most balanced soya supplier in the EU.

The mid-tier includes Croatia (CV 10.33%, max drawdown -22.49%), Austria (CV 17.15%), and Hungary (CV 17.15%). Notably, Austria and Hungary share an identical CV but for very different reasons: Austria's drawdown is a modest -9.39% despite the variability, while Hungary's maximum single-year drop reaches -34.28%, reflecting its volatile production pattern.

At the volatile end, Slovakia (CV 18.06%, max drawdown -40.2%), Romania (CV 26.04%, max drawdown -44.99%), and Germany (CV 32.18%) are the least reliable of the leading producers. Germany's high CV is partly a base-effect artefact of its rapid expansion from a small starting point — its maximum drawdown is only -10.65%, the shallowest among all eight, suggesting the volatility is on the upside. Romania's extreme drawdown of nearly 45% reflects its structural production decline.

Cambio en la asignación de tierras: Transformación de cultivos en 10 años

The land dedicated to soya tells a story of rapid expansion across much of the EU. EU-27 harvested soya area grew from 831.2 thousand hectares in 2016 to 1,014.7 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net gain of 183.5 thousand hectares (+22.1%, a 2.2% CAGR). This contrasts with the more modest production growth, implying some yield pressure as cultivation expanded into less optimal land.

The leading soya area expanders were Germany (+174.1%, a 11.85% annualized rate), Austria (+76.7%, 6.53%/yr), and Slovakia (+76.7%, 6.53%/yr), all classified as Expanding. These three countries together added over 92 thousand hectares of soya area, reflecting a concerted shift toward oilseed cultivation in Central Europe. Hungary also posted strong area growth (+30.1%, 2.97%/yr), while France expanded more moderately (+10.0%, 1.06%/yr).

Italy, the largest producer by volume, kept its soya area broadly stable (+3.4%, 0.37%/yr, classified as Stable), as did Romania (-1.0%, -0.11%/yr). Croatia showed modest expansion (+8.2%, 0.88%/yr).

Comparing production CAGR against area CAGR reveals divergent efficiency patterns. In France, production (+1.63%) outpaced area (+1.06%), indicating modest yield gains. In Austria, production (+6.95%) and area (+6.53%) grew almost in lockstep, suggesting extensification drove the expansion. In Romania, area stayed nearly flat (-0.11%) while production collapsed (-5.08%), pointing to significant yield deterioration — the most concerning signal in the dataset.

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