10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Spain retained its position as the EU's dominant watermelons producer throughout the decade. Spanish output rose from 1,039.7 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 1,222.7 thousand tonnes in 2024 — a net gain of 183.0 thousand tonnes (+17.6%) at a CAGR of 1.82%. Spanish production showed consistent upward momentum, exceeding 1,200 thousand tonnes in six of the last seven years and peaking at 1,382.3 thousand tonnes in 2021.
Italy recorded the strongest absolute growth among all producers, adding 185.3 thousand tonnes to reach 723.6 thousand tonnes in 2024 (CAGR +3.34%). Italian production accelerated markedly in the final two years, jumping from 656.7 thousand tonnes in 2022 to 751.6 thousand tonnes in 2023 before settling at 723.6 thousand tonnes in 2024. This late-decade surge moved Italy decisively past Greece into second place among EU producers.
Greece, the third-largest producer by volume, experienced a declining trajectory with estimated output falling from 586.5 thousand tonnes to 509.2 thousand tonnes (CAGR −1.56%, net change −77.3 thousand tonnes). All Greek values from 2016 onward carry estimated (e) flags. Greek production peaked at 647.0 thousand tonnes in 2017, then suffered a sharp contraction to 344.9 thousand tonnes in 2019 — a 46.6% decline in two years — before partially recovering to 509.2 thousand tonnes by 2024.
Romania posted the decade's steepest decline among any major EU producer. Output collapsed from 449.2 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 130.3 thousand tonnes in 2024 (CAGR −12.84%, net change −318.8 thousand tonnes). Romanian production held above 400 thousand tonnes through 2019, then entered a freefall: 259.5 thousand tonnes in 2020, 145.6 thousand tonnes in 2022, and a decade low of 130.3 thousand tonnes in 2024. The cumulative decline over the five years from 2019 to 2024 represents a 71.8% contraction.
Hungary's production declined from 196.0 thousand tonnes to 171.2 thousand tonnes (CAGR −1.50%, net change −24.8 thousand tonnes). Hungarian output fell steadily through 2022 (101.4 thousand tonnes, the decade low) before recovering to 171.2 thousand tonnes in 2024.
Bulgaria is the decade's breakout story. Production expanded from 60.0 thousand tonnes to 122.9 thousand tonnes — a 105% net increase at a CAGR of 8.3%. Bulgarian output crossed the 100 thousand tonne threshold in 2017 and reached its decade high of 122.9 thousand tonnes in 2024.
Portugal's production was broadly stable (CAGR +0.61%), with values ranging between 22.7 thousand tonnes (2019) and 31.7 thousand tonnes (2016). The 2023–2024 values carry provisional (p) flags.
Croatia posted the second-fastest growth rate, with output rising from 15.8 thousand tonnes to 29.1 thousand tonnes (CAGR +7.06%, +84.7%). Croatian production trended upward throughout the decade, with a decade low of 15.6 thousand tonnes in 2020 and a decade high of 29.1 thousand tonnes in 2024.
All values in 1 000 t. e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1039.7 | 1092.1 | 1113.2 | 1092.4 | 1200.1 | 1234.8 | 1382.3 | 1165.0 | 1168.9 | 1222.7 | +1.82% | +183.0 | Ascending |
| Italy | 538.3 | 534.0 | 570.8 | 581.6 | 650.4 | 651.9 | 648.2 | 656.7 | 751.6 | 723.6 | +3.34% | +185.3 | Ascending |
| Greece | 586.5 | 629.0e | 647.0e | 630.1e | 344.9e | 430.6e | 479.0e | 435.4e | 396.5e | 509.2e | −1.56% | −77.3 | Declining |
| Romania | 449.2 | 418.5 | 493.6 | 521.8 | 462.7 | 259.5 | 300.0 | 145.6 | 148.2 | 130.3 | −12.84% | −318.8 | Declining |
| Hungary | 196.0 | 184.6 | 181.8 | 178.8 | 174.6 | 147.3 | 124.0 | 101.4 | 124.7 | 171.2 | −1.50% | −24.8 | Declining |
| Bulgaria | 60.0 | 85.7 | 108.1 | 95.0 | 96.8 | 87.2 | 107.3 | 80.0 | 80.1 | 122.9 | +8.3% | +63.0 | Ascending |
| Portugal | 29.1 | 31.7 | 31.0 | 26.0 | 22.7 | 27.8 | 31.1 | 28.9 | 27.7p | 30.7p | +0.61% | +1.6 | Stable |
| Croatia | 15.8 | 19.9 | 19.7 | 27.7 | 20.3 | 15.6 | 21.5 | 23.8 | 26.4 | 29.1 | +7.06% | +13.4 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 2959.2 | 3035.6 | 3204.0 | 3192.2 | 3009.6 | 2904.6 | 3145.7 | 2685.8 | 2777.5 | 2995.3 | +0.14% | +36.1 | Stable |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV%) — places Spain as the most reliable supplier among major producers, with a CV of 7.88% (very stable). Spain's mean annual production of 1,171.12 thousand tonnes was the most consistent of any top producer throughout the decade. The maximum single-year drawdown of 15.72% reflects the decline from 1,382.3 thousand tonnes in 2021 to 1,165.0 thousand tonnes in 2022. Spain recorded 6 years below its decade mean.
Portugal ranks second with a CV of 9.23% (very stable), despite being the smallest producer by volume. Portugal's mean of just 28.67 thousand tonnes shows narrow year-to-year variability, though the max drawdown of 16.02% reflects the 2015-to-2019 decline from 29.1 to 22.7 thousand tonnes. Portugal recorded 4 years below its decade mean.
Italy ranks third with a CV of 11.09% (moderately stable). Italy's mean production of 630.69 thousand tonnes makes it the second-largest producer, and its relative stability is notable given the upward trajectory. Italy's max drawdown of just 3.72% is the lowest among all producers — Italian output never fell more than 3.72% between any two consecutive years, reflecting exceptional year-to-year consistency despite strong growth.
Bulgaria (CV 18.31%, moderately stable), Hungary (CV 19.13%, moderately stable), and Greece (CV 20.25%, volatile) occupy the middle ranks. Greece's max drawdown of 45.26% is the second-highest in the dataset, driven by the 2017-to-2019 decline from 647.0 to 344.9 thousand tonnes.
Croatia (CV 20.31%, volatile) and Romania (CV 44.13%, volatile) round out the rankings. Romania's volatility is the highest in the dataset by a wide margin, driven by the sustained collapse from 449.2 thousand tonnes in 2015 to 130.3 thousand tonnes in 2024. Romania's max drawdown of 51.46% reflects the 2019-to-2022 decline from 462.7 to 145.6 thousand tonnes.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 1171.12 | 7.88% | 15.72% | 6 | 1 |
| Portugal | 28.67 | 9.23% | 16.02% | 4 | 2 |
| Italy | 630.69 | 11.09% | 3.72% | 4 | 3 |
| Bulgaria | 92.32 | 18.31% | 25.49% | 5 | 4 |
| Hungary | 158.44 | 19.13% | 18.27% | 4 | 5 |
| Greece | 508.82 | 20.25% | 45.26% | 5 | 6 |
| Croatia | 21.99 | 20.31% | 26.82% | 6 | 7 |
| Romania | 332.94 | 44.13% | 51.46% | 5 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
EU-27 harvested area for watermelons contracted from 76.4 thousand hectares in 2015 to 63.8 thousand hectares in 2024 — a net decline of 12.6 thousand hectares (−16.5%) at an annualized growth rate of −1.98% (contracting). The area contraction was concentrated in Romania, which accounted for the largest share of land reduction.
Italy expanded its watermelons area from 11.6 thousand hectares to 15.5 thousand hectares (+33.9%, +3.3% annualized), the largest area gain in absolute terms among all producers. Italy's production CAGR (3.34%) closely matched its area growth rate (3.3%), indicating that output gains were primarily extensification-driven rather than the result of yield improvements.
Spain's harvested area grew at a more modest pace, from 19.1 thousand hectares to 21.8 thousand hectares (+14.0%, +1.47% annualized). Spain's production CAGR (1.82%) slightly exceeded its area growth rate, implying modest yield gains alongside area expansion.
Greece recorded the largest relative area contraction, with harvested area declining from 11.4 thousand hectares to 6.3 thousand hectares (−44.7%, −6.37% annualized). All Greek area values carry estimated (e) flags. Greece's production decline (−1.56% CAGR) was far shallower than its area contraction, pointing to significant yield improvements on remaining acreage.
Romania experienced the sharpest absolute area contraction, falling from 21.8 thousand hectares to 7.5 thousand hectares (−65.6%, −11.17% annualized). Romania was the largest land user for watermelons in 2015 but dropped to the fourth-largest by 2024. The production decline (−12.84% CAGR) outpaced the area contraction, indicating that both acreage reduction and yield deterioration contributed to the output collapse.
Hungary's watermelons area contracted from 6.0 to 3.7 thousand hectares (−38.9%, −5.32% annualized), while production declined at a slower rate (−1.50% CAGR), suggesting yield improvements on remaining acreage.
Bulgaria expanded its harvested area from 3.2 to 5.3 thousand hectares (+66.0%, +5.8% annualized). Bulgaria's production growth (8.3% CAGR) outpaced its area expansion, indicating both increasing acreage and rising yields.
Portugal's area declined from 1.1 to 0.9 thousand hectares (−16.2%, −1.94% annualized), with provisional (p) flags on 2023–2024 values.
Croatia expanded its area from 0.6 to 1.0 thousand hectares (+65.6%, +5.76% annualized), the fastest relative growth among small producers, though from a very low base. Croatian production growth (7.06% CAGR) outpaced area expansion, reflecting yield improvements.
All values in 1 000 ha. e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 19.1 | 19.2 | 20.0 | 20.4 | 21.5 | 21.6 | 24.0 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.8 | +2.7 | +1.47% | Expanding |
| Italy | 11.6 | 12.2 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 15.2 | 15.5 | +3.9 | +3.3% | Expanding |
| Greece | 11.4 | 10.8e | 11.1e | 9.6e | 8.8e | 8.8e | 10.3e | 7.1e | 6.4e | 6.3e | −5.1 | −6.37% | Contracting |
| Romania | 21.8 | 19.9 | 19.1 | 17.8 | 17.9 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 7.5 | −14.3 | −11.17% | Contracting |
| Hungary | 6.0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 3.7 | −2.3 | −5.32% | Contracting |
| Bulgaria | 3.2 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 5.3 | +2.1 | +5.8% | Expanding |
| Portugal | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.8p | 0.9p | −0.2 | −1.94% | Contracting |
| Croatia | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.0 | +0.4 | +5.76% | Expanding |
| EU-27 | 76.4 | 75.5 | 76.5 | 73.7 | 74.5 | 64.4 | 68.0 | 57.0 | 60.6 | 63.8 | −12.6 | −1.98% | Contracting |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew watermelons production fastest over the decade, and which declined most steeply?
Bulgaria grew fastest at an 8.3% CAGR, expanding from 60.0 to 122.9 thousand tonnes (+105%). In absolute terms, Italy added the most volume (+185.3 thousand tonnes) and Spain added the second-most (+183.0 thousand tonnes). Romania declined most steeply (−12.84% CAGR), with output falling from 449.2 to 130.3 thousand tonnes (−71.0%).
Which country is the most stable watermelons supplier in the EU?
Spain ranks first for supply stability with a CV of 7.88% (very stable), followed by Portugal at 9.23%. Italy, the second-largest producer, ranks third at 11.09% (moderately stable) but boasts the lowest maximum single-year drawdown at just 3.72% — Italian output never fell more than 3.72% in any single year across the entire decade.
Where is EU watermelons farmland expanding or shrinking?
Spain, Italy, Bulgaria, and Croatia are the only countries with expanding watermelons area. Italy added 3.9 thousand hectares (+3.3% annualized), while Bulgaria (+5.8%) and Croatia (+5.76%) grew fastest in relative terms. Romania (−11.17% annualized), Greece (−6.37%), Hungary (−5.32%), and Portugal (−1.94%) all show contracting area. EU-27 total area contracted at −1.98% annualized.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
