One Country Grows 79% of EU Hazelnuts: The Nutella Problem (2024 Data)

The Single-Supplier Problem: Hazelnut Market Shares

The hazelnut is Europe's most concentrated nut crop. In 2024 the EU-27 harvested 153 050 tonnes (153.1 thousand tonnes) of hazelnuts — and 120 520 tonnes of that, a 78.7% share, came from Italy alone. That is the highest single-country share of any EU nut crop.

The rest of the podium is an order of magnitude smaller. Poland grew 9 800 tonnes (6.4%), France 8 450 tonnes (5.5%), Romania 3 950 tonnes (2.6%), Croatia 3 330 tonnes (2.2%) and Spain 3 020 tonnes (2.0%). In other words, twelve times more hazelnuts grow on Italian soil than in the entire rest of the EU's runner-up belt.

The land tells the same story: Italy farms 90 390 hectares of hazel orchards, 69.8% of the EU's 129 500 hectares. Even by area — where the crop's wilder eastern growth inflates the rest — Italy holds seven of every ten EU hazelnut hectares.

Why Concentration Happens: the Orchard Economics in the Numbers

Italian hazelnut output is not static dominance — it grew. Between 2015 and 2024 Italian production rose 18.6%, from 101 640 to 120 520 tonnes, a compound growth rate of about 1.9% per year. Italy expanded its hazelnut area by 31.7% over the same decade, from 68 620 to 90 390 hectares — growers planted when demand (and prices) rose.

The EU total followed: the EU-27 harvest grew 16.7% across the decade, from 131 200 to 153 050 tonnes, roughly +1.7% per year. Concentration increased, not decreased: Italy's 78.7% share in 2024 sits above its position at the start of the window.

The data cannot tell us why each grower planted where they did, but the outcome is measurable: one country doubled down on one nut, and the EU's supply chain for gianduja, chocobars and hazelnut paste now runs through Italian orchards.

Stress Test: What a Bad Italian Year Does to Supply

Concentration is only half the risk. The other half is volatility — and Italy delivers a textbook case inside this very window. Italian hazelnut output peaked at 140 560 tonnes in 2020, then crashed to 84 670 tonnes in 2021: a 39.8% fall in a single harvest.

Because Italy is 79% of the EU, that one bad year cut the EU close to parity with a theoretical "normal Italy" scenario. By 2024 Italian output had recovered to 120 520 tonnes — 42.3% above the 2021 floor, but still 14.3% below the 2020 record.

Across the full decade Italy's coefficient of variation (CV, the standard deviation around its own average harvest) is 15.4% — moderately volatile for an orchard crop, whose biennial bearing tendency makes alternate big and small years normal. Buyers who contracted at 2020 volumes learned the difference between a peak and a plan.

Who Could Diversify: the Small Challengers

If a second EU hazelnut base exists, the decade data locates it in two countries. Poland's harvest nearly tripled in area terms — from 3 600 to 5 500 hectares — and its 2024 output of 9 800 tonnes makes it the clear number two. France expanded even faster in land: hazelnut area grew 59.2%, from 5 150 to 8 200 hectares, with output of 8 450 tonnes in 2024.

But none of the challengers is stable yet. Poland's production varied with a CV of 27.6% over 2015-2024, France's with 21.3%, Spain's with 32.2% and Romania's with a wild 90.8% — small orchards reporting small, lumpy harvests. Italy's own CV, for comparison, is 15.4%.

The honest read: the challengers are growing fast off small bases, and a decade of data is too short to call any of them a reliable second pillar. Diversification is underway, not achieved.

Buyer's Guide: What Small Food Businesses Should Watch

Three numbers frame hazelnut supply risk for a small processor or chocolatier. First, the share: 78.7% Italian means there is no EU fallback at scale — non-EU imports are the only real alternative, and this dataset does not track them. Second, the swing: Italy lost 39.8% of its harvest in one year inside the last decade, so annual re-pricing, not fixed annual contracts, is the realistic pattern.

Third, the trend: EU production is growing (+16.7% over the decade, +1.7% per year) and Italian orchard area keeps expanding (+31.7%), which points to structurally more EU nuts — but the concentration ratio has not fallen.

Practical rule of thumb: watch the Italian autumn estimate, treat 2020-scale volumes as a peak rather than a baseline, and track Polish and French area growth as the earliest signal of a genuine second source.

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