10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
Across the EU-27, total green maize production declined from 232.6 million tonnes in 2016 to 85.6 million tonnes in 2025 — a net loss of 147.1 million tonnes (-63.2%, a -10.24% CAGR). The decade peak occurred in 2021 at 269.3 million tonnes, while the 2025 value reflects a pronounced drop, with much of that year's data still flagged as provisional or estimated. Production dipped sharply to 218.2 million tonnes in 2022 before recovering to 245.3 million tonnes in 2024, then fell again in 2025.
Germany retained its position as the EU's dominant green maize producer, contributing roughly 37% of total output over the decade. Its production swung from a low of 73.2 million tonnes in 2022 to a high of 104.8 million tonnes in 2021, finishing at 30.6 million tonnes in 2025 (a -11.51% CAGR, -61.5 million tonnes net). France, the second-largest producer, followed a similar trajectory with a -11.5% CAGR and a net loss of 31.0 million tonnes. France's 2020 value carries a break-in-series flag reflecting a methodological change.
Poland recorded the mildest decline among the top eight (a -6.4% CAGR, -44.9% net), with its 2025 value flagged as estimated. Italy also held up relatively well in comparative terms (a -9.08% CAGR, -57.5% net). Denmark suffered the steepest decline (a -11.61% CAGR, -67.1% net), followed closely by Germany. The Netherlands, Belgium, and Czechia all posted double-digit negative CAGRs. Czechia's time series is marked by definitional differences (flag "d") across most years and a break in series in 2017, so its trend should be interpreted with caution.
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 92087.7 | 99473.4 | 77485.9 | 86692.2 | 97486.7 | 104839.3 | 73206.7 | 84270.0 | 90925.6 | 30628.3 | -11.51% | -61459.4 | Declining |
| France | 46485.5 | 54542.1 | 48810.1 | 46827.3 | 44887.5b | 50395.4 | 39271.5 | 49726.1 | 49048.4 | 15479.8 | -11.50% | -31005.7 | Declining |
| Poland | 16962.9 | 16582.8 | 21968.0 | 20856.0 | 26534.9 | 28682.7 | 26047.5 | 24424.2 | 25721.1 | 9349.8e | -6.40% | -7613.0 | Declining |
| Italy | 20424.0 | 19123.4 | 22038.1 | 22306.8 | 24648.5 | 24017.6 | 21060.4 | 22904.4 | 22667.1 | 8674.8 | -9.08% | -11749.2 | Declining |
| Denmark | 10535.2 | 10141.8 | 9923.9 | 13035.9 | 9711.4 | 11113.3 | 10464.3 | 10452.0 | 11216.2 | 3467.8 | -11.61% | -7067.4 | Declining |
| Netherlands | 8476.3 | 14961.6 | 8120.4 | 8036.9 | 8837.4 | 8306.8 | 8230.0 | 8639.4 | 7602.0 | 3029.5 | -10.80% | -5446.8 | Declining |
| Belgium | 6658.2 | 8284.9 | 6787.9 | 7403.1 | 7965.5 | 7539.6 | 8178.5 | 8039.6 | 7519.0 | 2801.4 | -9.17% | -3856.8 | Declining |
| Czechia | 4636.3d | 7777.0b | 6687.0d | 8243.6d | 8832.1d | 8431.7d | 7615.1d | 7189.8d | 7130.4d | 2795.7d | -5.47% | -1840.6 | Declining |
| EU-27 | 232622.2 | 255434.0 | 228234.2 | 239802.7 | 255352.9 | 269254.2 | 218236.2 | 241967.5 | 245333.5 | 85568.2 | -10.24% | -147054.0 | Declining |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Volume leadership and supply reliability are rarely held by the same country. Ranking the top eight producers by coefficient of variation (CV) — where a lower CV means steadier year-to-year output — reveals that the most dependable green maize suppliers are not the biggest. Notably, all eight producers fall into the volatile category (CV > 20%), reflecting the inherent variability in green maize harvests across the EU.
Italy is the most stable supplier of the decade (CV 20.8%, max single-year drawdown of -61.7%), ranking fourth by volume but first by reliability. Belgium follows closely (CV 21.5%, max drawdown -62.7%), providing moderate volume with the second-best stability. France ranks third (CV 23.3%, max drawdown -68.4%), offering both high volume and above-average reliability among the cohort.
The mid-tier includes Denmark (CV 23.5%), Germany (CV 23.8%), and Czechia (CV 25.5%). Germany's stability rank (5th) is notable given its dominant volume position — a buyer relying solely on Germany would have absorbed a -66.3% single-year drop, the second-worst drawdown in the cohort. Poland (CV 25.9%) and the Netherlands (CV 32.1%) occupy the least reliable positions, with the Netherlands recording the highest CV in the group by a wide margin. The Netherlands also posted the most years below its mean (six of ten), underscoring its unpredictable output pattern relative to its moderate production volume.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 20786.5 | 20.8% | -61.7% | 3 | 1 |
| Belgium | 7117.8 | 21.5% | -62.7% | 3 | 2 |
| France | 44547.4 | 23.3% | -68.4% | 2 | 3 |
| Denmark | 10006.2 | 23.5% | -69.1% | 3 | 4 |
| Germany | 83709.6 | 23.8% | -66.3% | 3 | 5 |
| Czechia | 6933.9 | 25.5% | -60.8% | 3 | 6 |
| Poland | 21713.0 | 25.9% | -63.7% | 4 | 7 |
| Netherlands | 8424.0 | 32.1% | -60.2% | 6 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
The land dedicated to green maize tells a more nuanced story than the production numbers alone suggest. EU-27 harvested green maize area contracted modestly from 6,061.4 thousand hectares in 2016 to 5,758.6 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net loss of 302.8 thousand hectares (-5.0%, a -0.56% annualized rate). That production fell far more sharply than area implies a significant decline in yield per hectare across the bloc.
France cut the most in both absolute and relative terms (-228.7 thousand hectares, -16.1%, a -1.93% annualized rate). Germany, the largest producer, reduced area by a more modest 174.5 thousand hectares (-8.2%, -0.94%/yr). The Netherlands (-10.4%) and Denmark (-5.3%) also contracted their green maize footprint.
Two producers bucked the contraction trend entirely. Italy expanded harvested area by 53.0 thousand hectares (+16.3%, a +1.69% annualized rate), the fastest expansion in the cohort. Poland added 38.2 thousand hectares (+6.4%, +0.69%/yr). Belgium held roughly steady (+3.0%, +0.33%/yr), and Czechia recorded a marginal decline (-3.4%, -0.39%/yr), both classified as Stable. The contrast between Italy's expanding area and its -9.08% production CAGR is particularly striking, indicating a sharp drop in per-hectare yields. Similarly, Poland's area grew by 0.69%/yr while production shrank at -6.4% CAGR. In Germany, both area (-0.94%/yr) and production (-11.51% CAGR) declined, but production fell roughly twelve times faster than area — the widest efficiency gap among all top producers.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 2137.6 | 2095.9 | 2195.9 | 2222.7 | 2299.7 | 2219.6 | 2028.3 | 2000.0 | 2048.7 | 1963.1 | -174.5 | -0.94% | Contracting |
| France | 1423.7 | 1406.0 | 1415.7 | 1438.2 | 1356.7b | 1241.5 | 1286.6 | 1257.7 | 1274.7 | 1195.0 | -228.7 | -1.93% | Contracting |
| Poland | 597.0 | 596.0 | 601.6 | 599.9 | 674.3 | 691.9 | 636.8 | 610.9 | 646.5 | 635.2e | +38.2 | +0.69% | Expanding |
| Italy | 325.0 | 342.1 | 355.3 | 367.4 | 379.1 | 375.6 | 368.9 | 354.7 | 360.0 | 378.0 | +53.0 | +1.69% | Expanding |
| Denmark | 182.4 | 166.7 | 179.6 | 186.4 | 188.7 | 173.9 | 167.7 | 179.8 | 182.7 | 172.7 | -9.7 | -0.61% | Contracting |
| Netherlands | 203.8 | 203.5 | 203.2 | 186.2 | 194.7 | 183.3 | 182.8 | 179.9 | 187.2 | 182.7 | -21.1 | -1.21% | Contracting |
| Belgium | 168.7 | 171.3 | 179.7 | 175.3 | 181.5 | 183.1 | 178.4 | 170.3 | 177.8 | 173.9 | +5.1 | +0.33% | Stable |
| Czechia | 234.4d | 223.2d | 224.1d | 232.4d | 226.2d | 217.0d | 211.8d | 222.9d | 223.7d | 226.3d | -8.1 | -0.39% | Stable |
| EU-27 | 6061.4 | 5985.9 | 6134.9 | 6210.4 | 6263.1 | 6054.3 | 5851.4 | 5766.6 | 5867.9 | 5758.6 | -302.8 | -0.56% | Contracting |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country declined the most in green maize production from 2016 to 2025?
Denmark recorded the steepest decline among the top eight producers with a -11.61% compound annual growth rate and a net loss of 7.1 million tonnes (-67.1%). Germany followed closely at -11.51% CAGR. Poland experienced the mildest decline with a -6.4% CAGR and a net loss of 44.9%.
Which country is the most stable green maize supplier in the EU?
Italy is the most stable top producer, with the lowest coefficient of variation (20.8%) and a maximum single-year drawdown of -61.7%. Belgium ranked second (CV 21.5%), combining moderate volume with second-best reliability. All top producers fall into the volatile category (CV > 20%).
Where is EU green maize farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU-27 green maize harvested area contracted by 302.8 thousand hectares (-5.0%) between 2016 and 2025. Italy expanded the fastest (+16.3%, +1.69%/yr), followed by Poland (+6.4%, +0.69%/yr). France recorded the steepest contraction (-16.1%, -1.93%/yr), and the Netherlands also declined significantly (-10.4%, -1.21%/yr).
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
