![EU Chestnuts Production Trends: Winners & Losers [2016–2025]](/images/chestnuts_crop.avif)
10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
EU-27 chestnut output moved from a decade low of 263.9 thousand tonnes in 2016 to a peak of 324.1 thousand tonnes in 2020, closing at 321.2 thousand tonnes in 2025. Of the eight top producers, five recorded ascending trajectories, while three were stable — with no country showing a decisive declining trend.
Spain is the EU’s long-standing production leader, contributing between 49.8% and 62.4% of total EU output across the decade. Spanish production was remarkably steady, oscillating between a low of 156.2 thousand tonnes in 2017 and a high of 188.9 thousand tonnes in 2019, before closing at 160.1 thousand tonnes in 2025 (CAGR −0.12%, −1.7 thousand tonnes net, −1.0%). The 2025 value carries a provisional (p) flag. Spain’s 2018–2019 surge to 184.8–188.9 thousand tonnes marked the highest output of any single country in the decade, though this was followed by a gradual pullback to 2025 levels.
Italy is the decade’s most dynamic chestnut grower, more than doubling output from 33.7 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 83.5 thousand tonnes in 2025 (CAGR +10.63%, +49.9 thousand tonnes net, +148.2%). Italian production grew in eight of ten years, including a remarkable acceleration from 43.0 thousand tonnes in 2021 to 83.5 thousand tonnes in 2025 — an expansion of 94.2% in just four years. Italy’s share of EU production rose from 12.8% in 2016 to 26.0% in 2025, meaning it now supplies over a quarter of the bloc’s chestnuts. Greece, ranking third by cumulative production with 334.4 thousand tonnes over the decade, posted modest growth from 28.3 thousand tonnes to 35.5 thousand tonnes (CAGR +2.57%, +7.3 thousand tonnes net, +25.7%). All Greek values carry estimated (e) flags.
Portugal, once a close rival to Italy for the #2 slot, declined slightly from 32.1 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 29.9 thousand tonnes in 2025 (CAGR −0.79%, −2.2 thousand tonnes net, −6.9%). Portuguese production peaked at 43.8 thousand tonnes in 2019 before entering a sustained contraction — falling to 22.7 thousand tonnes by 2022 — followed by a partial recovery to 29.9 thousand tonnes in 2025 (flagged p). France grew steadily from 7.8 to 11.4 thousand tonnes (CAGR +4.31%, +3.6 thousand tonnes net, +46.2%), though the 2020 value carries a break-in-series (b) flag. Among the smaller producers, Hungary remained flat at 0.2 thousand tonnes, Slovenia quadrupled from 0.1 to 0.3 thousand tonnes (CAGR +18.40%), and Romania posted growth from near-zero output.
All values in 1 000 t. p = provisional, e = estimated, b = break in series. EU-27 totals include all member states, not only the top 8 shown.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 161.8 | 156.2 | 184.8 | 188.9 | 188.7 | 187.7 | 174.1 | 174.1 | 181.8 | 160.1p | −0.12% | −1.7 | Stable |
| Italy | 33.7 | 37.2 | 32.8 | 40.0 | 49.8 | 43.0 | 57.4 | 70.4 | 64.3 | 83.5 | +10.63% | +49.9 | Ascending |
| Greece | 28.3e | 36.0e | 35.2e | 29.0e | 34.1e | 30.7e | 37.5e | 34.9e | 33.1e | 35.5e | +2.57% | +7.3 | Ascending |
| Portugal | 32.1 | 29.9 | 34.1 | 43.8 | 42.2 | 37.7 | 22.7 | 23.8 | 27.2 | 29.9p | −0.79% | −2.2 | Stable |
| France | 7.8 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 8.7b | 9.5 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 11.4 | +4.31% | +3.6 | Ascending |
| Hungary | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | +0.45% | 0.0 | Stable |
| Slovenia | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | +18.40% | +0.2 | Ascending |
| Romania | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | +8.01% | 0.0 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 263.9 | 265.7 | 296.0 | 309.4 | 324.1 | 309.1 | 302.4 | 312.4 | 316.2 | 321.2 | +2.21% | +57.3 | Ascending |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV%) — ranks Spain as the most reliable chestnut supplier among the top eight producers, with a CV of just 6.80% (very stable). Spain’s mean annual production of 175.81 thousand tonnes is more than three times that of the next-largest producer, and its years-below-mean count of 5 out of 10 reflects a balanced distribution. Spain’s maximum single-year drawdown of 11.94% — representing the worst harvest decline a buyer would have experienced — is the lowest in the cohort, reinforcing its status as an exceptionally dependable source.
Greece ranks second in stability (CV 8.85%, very stable), confirming that Greek chestnut output is highly predictable — bouncing within a tight 29.0–37.5 thousand tonnes range. However, all Greek values carry estimated (e) flags, so this stability is partly a reflection of data estimation rather than observed volatility. France ranks third (CV 16.21%, moderately stable) with a max drawdown of 22.31%. Hungary ranks fourth (CV 18.55%, moderately stable) despite tiny absolute output, while Portugal ranks fifth (CV 21.12%, volatile). Portugal’s max drawdown of 39.90% — the collapse from 43.8 thousand tonnes in 2019 to 22.7 thousand tonnes in 2022 — is the largest relative supply shock among Mediterranean producers.
Italy, the growth star, ranks only sixth in stability (CV 31.86%, volatile) with a max drawdown of 13.57%. While Italy’s drawdown is modest, its high CV reflects the sustained rapid upward trend — rapid growth translates mathematically into higher standard deviation. At the volatile extreme, Romania (CV 36.91%, rank 7) and Slovenia (CV 58.53%, rank 8) occupy the bottom positions. Slovenia’s extreme CV and max drawdown of 73.91% reflect the combination of a minuscule baseline (mean of 0.18 thousand tonnes) and explosive growth (+18.40% CAGR).
CV < 10% = Very stable, 10–20% = Moderately stable, > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 175.81 | 6.80% | 11.94% | 5 | 1 |
| Greece | 33.44 | 8.85% | 17.74% | 4 | 2 |
| France | 8.73 | 16.21% | 22.31% | 5 | 3 |
| Hungary | 0.23 | 18.55% | 33.33% | 3 | 4 |
| Portugal | 32.34 | 21.12% | 39.90% | 6 | 5 |
| Italy | 51.20 | 31.86% | 13.57% | 6 | 6 |
| Romania | 0.05 | 36.91% | 44.44% | 5 | 7 |
| Slovenia | 0.18 | 58.53% | 73.91% | 6 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
EU-27 harvested area for chestnuts expanded from 123.8 thousand hectares in 2016 to 146.7 thousand hectares in 2025 — a net gain of 22.9 thousand hectares (18.5%) at an annualized growth rate of 1.90%. Six of the eight major producers expanded area, with only Spain and Hungary contracting. The EU total area CAGR of 1.90% trails the production CAGR of 2.21%, signalling modest yield improvements across the bloc.
Portugal recorded the most significant absolute land expansion among the top eight, growing from 35.7 thousand hectares to 51.2 thousand hectares (+15.5 thousand hectares, +43.3%, annualized 4.07%). This is striking given Portugal’s production contraction (−0.79% CAGR) — area expanded enormously while output fell, implying Portuguese yields declined from approximately 0.90 t/ha in 2016 to 0.58 t/ha in 2025. The pattern is consistent with large-scale new plantings where young, immature trees are adding hectares but have not yet reached full bearing capacity. Italy expanded area from 34.5 to 39.7 thousand hectares (+5.3 thousand hectares, +15.3%, annualized 1.59%). Italy’s production CAGR of 10.63% vastly outran its area growth of 1.59%, indicating strong intensification — yields improved from approximately 0.98 t/ha in 2016 to 2.10 t/ha in 2025.
Greece expanded area modestly from 8.8 to 9.6 thousand hectares (+8.6%, annualized 0.93%), though all values carry estimated (e) flags. France added 1.2 thousand hectares to reach 9.3 thousand hectares (+14.7%, annualized 1.54%). Spain remained essentially flat (−1.4%). Among the smaller producers, Slovenia expanded from negligible area to 0.1 thousand hectares, Hungary contracted from 0.5 to 0.4 thousand hectares (−13.0%), and Romania maintained near-zero area throughout.
All values in 1 000 ha. p = provisional, e = estimated, b = break in series. EU-27 totals include all member states, not only the top 8 shown.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 36.2 | 36.5 | 36.7 | 35.1 | 35.7 | 35.9 | 36.3 | 35.2 | 35.4 | 35.7 | −0.5 | −0.16% | Stable |
| Italy | 34.5 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 36.3 | 36.4 | 34.3 | 36.2 | 40.8 | 39.4 | 39.7 | +5.3 | +1.59% | Expanding |
| Greece | 8.8e | 9.2e | 9.5e | 8.4e | 10.2e | 8.9e | 9.8e | 9.1e | 9.9e | 9.6e | +0.8 | +0.93% | Expanding |
| Portugal | 35.7 | 36.8 | 41.3 | 51.7 | 51.7 | 50.4 | 49.9 | 50.6 | 51.2 | 51.2p | +15.5 | +4.07% | Expanding |
| France | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 8.6b | 8.6 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.3 | +1.2 | +1.54% | Expanding |
| Hungary | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | −0.1 | −1.54% | Contracting |
| Slovenia | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | +0.1 | +22.03% | Expanding |
| Romania | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.00% | Stable |
| EU-27 | 123.8 | 126.5 | 132.7 | 140.5 | 143.2 | 138.9 | 142.0 | 145.7 | 146.1 | 146.7 | +22.9 | +1.90% | Expanding |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew chestnut production fastest from 2016 to 2025?
Italy recorded the highest compound annual growth rate among major producers at 10.63%, surging from 33.7 to 83.5 thousand tonnes — a 148.2% net increase that pushed Italy’s share of EU production from 12.8% to 26.0%. France followed at 4.31% CAGR (+46.2% net). Spain remains the largest producer at 160.1 thousand tonnes with a stable trajectory.
Which country is the most stable chestnut supplier in the EU?
Spain is the most stable supplier with a coefficient of variation of just 6.80% (very stable) and a mean output of 175.81 thousand tonnes — combining volume dominance with the lowest supply risk of any top-eight producer. Spain’s maximum single-year drawdown of 11.94% is also the smallest in the cohort. Greece ranks second (CV 8.85%), though all Greek data is estimated.
Where is EU chestnut farmland expanding or shrinking?
Six of eight major producers expanded chestnut area over the decade. Portugal led in absolute terms (+15.5 thousand hectares, +43.3%), though production fell, suggesting new plantings of immature orchards. Italy added 5.3 thousand hectares (+15.3%) while more than doubling per-hectare yields. France grew 14.7%, Greece expanded 8.6%, and Spain remained stable (−1.4%). Only Hungary contracted (−13.0%). The EU-27 total area expanded 18.5% to 146.7 thousand hectares.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
This article was generated using AI. The content is based on Eurostat data and is provided as a starting point — please verify all data with the original source.
