10-Year Production Trajectory: Rising Stars & Fading Producers
The EU-27 almond harvest climbed from 313.8 thousand tonnes in 2016 to a peak of 651.0 thousand tonnes in 2025, reflecting an 8.5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and a net addition of 337.2 thousand tonnes. The trajectory was not linear — production dipped notably in 2022 to 410.9 thousand tonnes before recovering strongly in the following three years, hitting successive record highs in 2024 (570.7 thousand tonnes) and 2025 (651.0 thousand tonnes).
Spain, the EU's undisputed almond powerhouse, expanded output from 198.8 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 453.0 thousand tonnes in 2025, growing at a 9.6% CAGR and adding 254.2 thousand tonnes net. The country's production dipped sharply in 2022 to 246.0 thousand tonnes — a decline of 32.6% from the prior year — before rebounding to new highs. Portugal recorded the most explosive growth among major producers: starting from just 8.7 thousand tonnes in 2016, output surged to 86.2 thousand tonnes provisionally in 2025, a nearly tenfold increase reflecting a 29.0% CAGR. Italy maintained a stable output profile, oscillating within a narrow band between 71.6 and 80.5 thousand tonnes (a 0.7% CAGR), while Greece saw effectively flat production at an estimated 0.2% CAGR.
France (4.6% CAGR), Cyprus (2.8% CAGR), and Croatia (2.5% CAGR) all posted modest gains, though their absolute volumes remain below 2 thousand tonnes. Bulgaria was the only top-eight producer to register a declining trajectory, falling from 0.8 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 0.3 thousand tonnes in 2025, a negative 10.2% CAGR. The year 2025 values for Portugal, Cyprus, and Croatia are provisional, while all Greek values are estimated and the 2016 Bulgarian entry carries a definition-differs flag.
All values in 1 000 t. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | CAGR | Net Change (1 000 t) | Trajectory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 198.8 | 243.9 | 339.0 | 340.4 | 416.9 | 365.2 | 246.0 | 297.7 | 369.7 | 453.0 | +9.6% | +254.2 | Ascending |
| Italy | 74.6 | 79.6 | 79.8 | 77.3 | 80.5 | 71.6 | 74.6 | 77.7 | 75.0 | 79.3 | +0.7% | +4.7 | Stable |
| Portugal | 8.7 | 23.1 | 17.1 | 32.3 | 31.6 | 41.5 | 46.2 | 69.5 | 90.8 | 86.2p | +29.0% | +77.5 | Ascending |
| Greece | 29.2e | 22.1e | 26.7e | 21.9e | 28.2e | 26.8e | 39.7e | 36.7e | 30.8e | 29.6e | +0.2% | +0.4 | Stable |
| France | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.1b | 1.9 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.7 | +4.6% | +0.6 | Ascending |
| Bulgaria | 0.8d | 0.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | -10.2% | -0.5 | Declining |
| Cyprus | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4p | 0.4p | +2.8% | +0.1 | Ascending |
| Croatia | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 | +2.5% | +0.0 | Ascending |
| EU-27 | 313.8 | 370.8 | 465.6 | 474.5 | 561.2 | 508.5 | 410.9 | 485.2 | 570.7 | 651.0 | +8.5% | +337.2 | Ascending |
Supply Stability Scorecard: Reliability Rankings
Supply stability — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV%) — reveals a stark contrast between established and emerging almond producers. The CV% quantifies year-to-year fluctuations relative to each country's ten-year mean: lower values indicate greater predictability for buyers and processors.
Italy ranks as the most stable supplier by a wide margin, with a CV% of just 3.6% — firmly in the "very stable" category. Italian almond output has hovered within a tight corridor of 71.6 to 80.5 thousand tonnes over the decade, making it the most dependable source for supply contracts. Its maximum single-year drawdown was 11.1%, the shallowest among all top-eight producers.
Cyprus and Greece follow with CV% values of 16.0% and 18.3% respectively, both in the "moderately stable" range. Spain, despite being the dominant volume producer, registers a CV% of 23.4% — crossing into volatile territory — driven by the sharp 32.6% drop in 2022. Portugal's CV% of 60.6% reflects the turbulence of rapid orchard expansion: production more than doubled between 2022 and 2024 alone, creating enormous year-over-year swings that complicate forward contracting.
Bulgaria (35.1% CV) and France (30.6% CV) sit in the volatile band, while Croatia's extreme 95.2% CV reflects its ultra-small scale where even a few hundred tonnes of variation produce outsized percentage swings. For buyers seeking reliability, Italy offers the best combination of meaningful volume and steady delivery.
CV < 10% = Very stable; CV 10–20% = Moderately stable; CV > 20% = Volatile.
| Country | Mean (1 000 t) | CV% | Max Drawdown% | Years Below Mean | Stability Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy | 77.0 | 3.6% | -11.1% | 4 | 1 |
| Cyprus | 0.4 | 16.0% | -23.4% | 4 | 2 |
| Greece | 29.2 | 18.3% | -24.1% | 5 | 3 |
| Spain | 327.1 | 23.4% | -32.6% | 4 | 4 |
| France | 1.7 | 30.6% | -21.6% | 4 | 5 |
| Bulgaria | 0.8 | 35.1% | -71.9% | 5 | 6 |
| Portugal | 44.7 | 60.6% | -25.7% | 6 | 7 |
| Croatia | 0.2 | 95.2% | -91.0% | 7 | 8 |
Land Allocation Shift: 10-Year Cropland Transformation
The EU-27's total almond harvested area expanded from 689.7 thousand hectares in 2016 to 828.4 thousand hectares in 2025, a net gain of 138.7 thousand hectares at a 2.1% annualized growth rate. Spain accounted for the majority of this expansion, adding 90.8 thousand hectares (a 15.6% increase) to reach 674.4 thousand hectares. Notably, Spain's area CAGR of 1.6% is far below its production CAGR of 9.6%, indicating significant yield improvements — likely from higher-density plantings, improved irrigation, and maturing orchards reaching peak productivity.
Portugal recorded the most dramatic land-use transformation, more than doubling its almond area from 31.5 to 73.8 thousand hectares — a 134.5% net increase and a 9.9% annualized growth rate. This expansion mirrors the country's production surge and confirms that new orchard plantings rather than yield gains are the primary driver of Portugal's rising output. Greece also expanded significantly (from 11.9 to 17.5 thousand hectares, up 46.8%), and France more than doubled its modest acreage from 1.2 to 2.8 thousand hectares.
Italy and Cyprus bucked the trend: Italian almond area contracted from 57.4 to 54.0 thousand hectares (down 5.9%), and Cyprus declined from 2.4 to 1.9 thousand hectares (down 21.8%). Italy's ability to maintain stable production despite shrinking area — its production CAGR of 0.7% versus its area growth rate of -0.7% — confirms intensification and higher per-hectare yields on the remaining orchard base.
The gap between EU-wide area growth (2.1% annually) and production growth (8.5% annually) is substantial, indicating that improved orchard management, higher-yielding varieties, and maturing young plantings are collectively driving productivity gains well beyond what acreage expansion alone would deliver.
All values in 1 000 ha. b = break in series, d = definition differs, e = estimated, p = provisional.
| Country | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Net Change (1 000 ha) | Growth Rate | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 583.7 | 633.6 | 657.8 | 587.0 | 599.6 | 620.2 | 634.3 | 646.7 | 663.2 | 674.4 | +90.8 | +1.6% | Expanding |
| Italy | 57.4 | 57.6 | 58.0 | 52.0 | 52.6 | 53.7 | 53.9 | 54.1 | 53.4 | 54.0 | -3.4 | -0.7% | Contracting |
| Portugal | 31.5 | 33.4 | 38.7 | 49.4 | 52.3 | 58.4 | 63.9 | 71.7 | 73.8 | 73.8p | +42.3 | +9.9% | Expanding |
| Greece | 11.9e | 13.2e | 14.1e | 15.1e | 23.7e | 17.7e | 18.4e | 18.7e | 18.0e | 17.5e | +5.6 | +4.4% | Expanding |
| France | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 2.1b | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | +1.6 | +10.1% | Expanding |
| Bulgaria | 1.0d | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 2.5 | +1.5 | +10.7% | Expanding |
| Cyprus | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.9p | 1.9p | -0.5 | -2.7% | Contracting |
| Croatia | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.1 | +0.6 | +10.5% | Expanding |
| EU-27 | 689.7 | 742.8 | 773.9 | 709.3 | 734.9 | 756.8 | 778.0 | 798.1 | 816.3 | 828.4 | +138.7 | +2.1% | Expanding |
Frequently Asked Questions
Which EU country grew its almond production the fastest between 2016 and 2025?
Portugal was the fastest-growing producer, expanding output at a 29.0% CAGR — from 8.7 thousand tonnes in 2016 to 86.2 thousand tonnes in 2025. Spain added the most absolute volume with a net gain of 254.2 thousand tonnes at a 9.6% CAGR.
Which EU country is the most stable almond supplier?
Italy is the most stable almond supplier, with a coefficient of variation of just 3.6% and the lowest maximum single-year drawdown at 11.1%. Production has stayed within a 9-thousand-tonne band across the entire decade.
Where is EU almond farmland expanding or shrinking?
EU almond farmland expanded by 138.7 thousand hectares overall, led by Spain (+90.8 thousand ha) and Portugal (+42.3 thousand ha). Italy and Cyprus are the only top producers where almond area contracted, shrinking by 3.4 and 0.5 thousand hectares respectively.
Source data extracted from Eurostat dataset apro_cpsh1.
